Bond Outlook December 19th

The central banks are doing all they can to resolve the liquidity crisis, but they can do so little about underlying solvency problems. Only time can solve them.

Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, December 19th 2007]

In this last Weekly of 2007, may we leave you a question to ponder on over the break? Can a massive loosening of liquidity solve a solvency problem? Obviously the question itself implies a view, viz., that the immediate underlying cause of the current prices is the fall in US (and UK) housing prices and the terrible performance of mortgage-backed securities. This immediate cause is a manifestation of the USA’s living beyond its (considerable) means.

It is worth recalling that the housing crisis is the underlying cause, as a return to healthy financial markets can only be achieved when the US housing market stabilises.

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