Zoran Djindjic, Serbia’s prime minister, gunned down in Belgrade last month, was not outrightly popular. His shock therapy economic strategy, which led to high prices and unemployment, hit the electorate hard.
Still, the reformer who led the overthrow of Milosevic, sent him to the war crimes tribunal and set about building a new economic and democratic future for the country and region, was widely mourned. Alongside politicians from over 40 countries, several hundred thousand Serbs flocked to his funeral, covering the streets with flowers.
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Djindjic: his legacy may be a greater |
Djindjic understood the need to make difficult decisions and was unapologetic about carrying them through. “The population is not happy to have high prices and low salaries, but I don’t intend to concentrate my policies on opinion polls,” he told Euromoney last year. “We have to do very tough things.”
His death is a wake up call to Serbia’s pro-democracy forces. He was seen as the one person who could bring the region together and who helped form the decentralised union of Serbia and Montenegro last year. He encouraged people to look beyond ethnic divides to a common future of EU integration and vociferously argued to the EU how this would ensure the region’s stability.
At Djindjic’s funeral, George Papandreou, the foreign minister of Greece, the temporary president of the EU, promised to pursue Djindjic’s goal of making Serbia an EU member, but this is unlikely before 2010.
He was a pragmatic politician who led the country towards reform despite the economic hardship, sent war criminals to The Hague without provoking a nationalist rebellion and got political and nationalist factions to work together, including 17 parties in his coalition government. Flexibility typified his style.
Djindjic’s economic legacy is significant. Some 24 insolvent banks have been shut, 510 companies privatized, price controls lifted and a new labour code introduced. The central bank has stabilised the currency and reduced inflation. The economy is growing at 2-3% annually. “They’ve made incredible progress,” says Charles Robertson, an ING economist. “People will always credit Djindjic for setting some excellent foundations for Serbia’s future.” Yet with GDP still half of 1990 levels, the country needs 5% growth rates for several years before unemployment falls and people feel richer.
Gangs still intact
Where Djindjic failed was to crack down on corruption and the organised criminal gangs with links to Milosevic-era security units, many of which are still intact. It is Zvezdan Jovanovic, a deputy commander of an elite police unit formed under Milosevic with links to the Zemun clan crime ring, who has been accused of his killing.
Even so many felt that a difficult job with Djindjic at the helm will be infinitely harder after his death. Says Robertson: “I think there was a danger for people to say Djindjic can sort this out and we’ll rely on him.”
However the cabinet remains mainly unchanged and his successor and close ally, interior minister Zoran Zivkovic has pledged to continue with all of Djindjic’s reforms and furthermore has insisted that the police and the judiciary, still populated with Milosevic henchmen, will be cleansed. Over 1,000 people have been arrested since the assassination, Jovanovic’s unit has been disbanded and two of three Zemun clan members suspected to be behind the killing have been shot by Serbian police. “Djindjic’s regime was reliant on other mafia groups allowing him to come to power in the first place,” says one analyst. “It seems Zivkovic is taking these guys on much more directly and risking an awful lot by doing so.”
Ironically, Djindjic’s assassination may even hasten economic progress if the new leadership can tackle institutional reform and organised crime, both major obstacles to attracting the e1 billion in foreign direct investment targeted for Serbia this year, a vital tool for stimulating growth and tackling unemployment.
Meanwhile, Serbia’s finance minister Bozidar Djelic is calling for e250 million in international grants and soft loans to help deal with the crisis and to revise its three-year agreement with the IMF. The World Bank has approved another $200 million loan to Serbia and Montenegro, but with international attention elsewhere, analysts say additional funds are unlikely.
Djelic has urged the international community not to forget Serbia in its hour of need and that the country owes successful reform to its fallen hero. It is hoped that international institutions do not ignore this region at the crucial moment. The EU would do well to respond to Djindjic’s challenge and develop a framework for the EU integration of the Balkans as soon as possible.
