Asian recovery belies slack global growth
Full Results: Country risk
Methodology
| Economic projections | ||||||||
| Rank | Country | Average | Economic | Economic | Expected | GNP | GNP | |
| Mar | Sept | performance | performance | performance | change | growth | growth (%) | |
| 03 | 02 | 03-04 | 03 | 04 | 03-04 | 03 | 04 | |
| 1 | 3 | Luxembourg | 86.3 | 84.5 | 88.0 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| 2 | 5 | Sweden | 80.2 | 82.3 | 78.0 | -4.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 3= | 12 | Canada | 79.9 | 80.0 | 79.8 | -0.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| 3= | 2 | Australia | 79.9 | 80.1 | 79.6 | -0.5 | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| 5 | 8 | Netherlands | 78.5 | 81.7 | 75.4 | -6.3 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 6 | 9 | Finland | 78.4 | 76.9 | 79.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| 7 | 4 | Norway | 78.3 | 77.8 | 78.8 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 8 | 10 | New Zealand | 78.2 | 77.7 | 78.7 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| 9= | 29 | Iceland | 78.0 | 76.0 | 80.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| 9= | 1 | Ireland | 78.0 | 75.6 | 80.3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| 11 | 6 | Switzerland | 77.0 | 81.7 | 72.3 | -9.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 12 | 18 | United States | 76.6 | 74.8 | 78.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 13 | 13 | Austria | 76.1 | 74.8 | 77.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 14 | 7 | Denmark | 75.5 | 73.9 | 77.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 15 | 15 | United Kingdom | 75.2 | 75.1 | 75.3 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 16 | 11 | Spain | 74.0 | 71.6 | 76.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| 17 | 17 | France | 73.6 | 78.3 | 68.9 | -9.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| 18 | 36= | China | 73.3 | 73.9 | 72.7 | -1.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
| 19 | 16 | Belgium | 73.0 | 70.1 | 75.9 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 20 | 24 | Greece | 72.9 | 72.3 | 73.5 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| 21 | 32= | Trinidad & Tobago | 71.5 | 68.6 | 74.4 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| 22 | 20 | Portugal | 71.3 | 73.7 | 69.0 | -4.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 23 | 40 | Mauritius | 70.8 | 70.0 | 71.5 | 1.5 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| 24 | 21 | Germany | 70.7 | 75.2 | 66.3 | -8.9 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| 25 | 23 | Malta | 69.5 | 68.0 | 71.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| 26 | 27 | Korea South | 69.1 | 67.6 | 70.6 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| 27 | 22 | Cyprus | 67.0 | 66.0 | 68.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| 28 | 14 | Singapore | 66.5 | 64.9 | 68.0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 29 | 52 | South Africa | 66.4 | 65.8 | 67.0 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| 30 | 19 | Italy | 66.0 | 62.6 | 69.3 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 31 | na | Antigua & Barbuda | 65.8 | 61.7 | 70.0 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| 32 | 30 | Slovenia | 65.6 | 64.8 | 66.5 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| 33 | 35 | Hungary | 64.5 | 64.2 | 64.7 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| 34 | 48 | Chile | 64.0 | 62.8 | 65.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.9 |
| 35 | 42= | Latvia | 63.3 | 61.5 | 65.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| 36 | 32= | Estonia | 63.0 | 61.0 | 65.0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| 37 | 41 | Czech Republic | 62.7 | 60.9 | 64.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| 38 | 38 | Qatar | 62.5 | 62.0 | 63.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 4.1 |
| 39 | 39 | UAE | 61.5 | 61.7 | 61.3 | -0.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| 40 | 32= | Malaysia | 61.3 | 61.1 | 61.5 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| 41 | 78 | Macedonia FYR | 60.5 | 60.0 | 61.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| 42 | 51 | Slovak Republic | 60.2 | 59.0 | 61.3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| 43 | 31 | Botswana | 59.5 | 59.0 | 60.0 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| 44 | 25 | Taiwan | 59.0 | 59.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| 45 | 55 | Poland | 58.8 | 58.0 | 59.5 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| 46 | 62= | India | 58.5 | 57.6 | 59.4 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| 47 | 64 | Dominican Republic | 57.7 | 55.7 | 59.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| 48= | 49 | Thailand | 56.8 | 56.4 | 57.3 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 48= | 26 | Hong Kong | 56.8 | 54.7 | 58.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| 50 | 47 | Croatia | 56.4 | 57.4 | 55.4 | -2.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 51= | na | St Lucia | 56.3 | 55.0 | 57.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 51= | na | St Vincent the Grenadines | 56.3 | 55.0 | 57.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| 53 | 61 | Barbados | 55.8 | 51.7 | 60.0 | 8.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| 54 | 50 | Lithuania | 55.7 | 55.7 | 55.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| 55 | 57 | Russia | 55.5 | 55.9 | 55.0 | -0.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| 56= | 42= | Bahamas | 55.0 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| 56= | 76 | Fiji | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
| 56= | 116 | Surinam | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| 59 | 60 | Mexico | 54.7 | 52.6 | 56.8 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| 60 | 54 | Bahrain | 54.5 | 54.3 | 54.7 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| 61 | 83= | Kazakhstan | 54.3 | 51.5 | 57.0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.6 |
| 62 | 73 | Vietnam | 54.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 6.8 |
| 63 | 44= | Kuwait | 53.3 | 54.0 | 52.7 | -1.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| 64 | 67 | Morocco | 52.7 | 52.3 | 53.0 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
| 65 | 53 | Bulgaria | 52.7 | 52.0 | 53.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| 66= | 83= | Costa Rica | 52.5 | 48.3 | 56.7 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| 66= | na | Dominica | 52.5 | 47.5 | 57.5 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| 66= | 154 | Grenada | 52.5 | 47.5 | 57.5 | 10.0 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| 69 | 75 | Peru | 52.4 | 52.4 | 52.5 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| 70= | 62= | Philippines | 52.2 | 51.8 | 52.6 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| 70= | 44= | Oman | 52.2 | 51.0 | 53.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 72 | 65 | Guyana | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| 73 | 90 | Iran | 51.5 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| 74 | 68 | Romania | 50.1 | 48.7 | 51.5 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 75 | 100 | Turkey | 49.9 | 49.5 | 50.2 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| 76= | 71 | Israel | 49.8 | 48.2 | 51.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| 76= | 70 | Namibia | 49.8 | 49.5 | 50.0 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 78 | 58= | Saudi Arabia | 49.7 | 51.0 | 48.3 | -2.7 | 2.6 | 3.7 |
| 79 | 88= | Brazil | 49.6 | 47.9 | 51.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| 80 | 95 | Pakistan | 49.3 | 47.8 | 50.8 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| 81 | 82 | Brunei | 48.5 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 82 | 56 | Tunisia | 48.3 | 45.7 | 51.0 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| 83 | 94 | Ecuador | 47.9 | 47.0 | 48.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| 84 | 72 | Azerbaijan | 47.8 | 47.5 | 48.0 | 0.5 | 6.8 | 5.4 |
| 85 | 81 | Bolivia | 47.3 | 45.3 | 49.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| 86 | 85 | Ukraine | 47.0 | 46.8 | 47.3 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| 87 | 66 | Uganda | 45.8 | 45.0 | 46.5 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 6.7 |
| 88= | 97 | Algeria | 45.5 | 46.3 | 44.7 | -1.7 | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| 88= | 69 | Cuba | 45.5 | 42.5 | 48.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| 90 | 46 | Japan | 45.4 | 42.8 | 47.9 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| 91 | 79= | Colombia | 45.3 | 42.6 | 48.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| 92 | na | Haiti | 45.0 | 50.0 | 40.0 | -10.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 93 | 79= | Panama | 44.5 | 42.3 | 46.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| 94 | 88= | Guatemala | 44.0 | 43.7 | 44.3 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| 95 | 58= | El Salvador | 42.7 | 39.7 | 45.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| 96 | 91= | Egypt | 41.5 | 40.3 | 42.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| 97 | 86 | Jamaica | 41.1 | 39.8 | 42.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| 98= | 93 | Jordan | 40.3 | 39.7 | 41.0 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| 98= | 114= | Sri Lanka | 40.3 | 39.5 | 41.0 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| 100 | 28 | Georgia | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| 101 | 101 | Ghana | 39.7 | 40.0 | 39.3 | -0.7 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| 102 | 98 | Indonesia | 39.6 | 39.3 | 39.9 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| 103 | 91= | Albania | 38.8 | 38.5 | 39.0 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| 104 | 105= | Mozambique | 38.5 | 37.0 | 40.0 | 3.0 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| 105 | 102 | Tanzania | 38.3 | 38.3 | 38.3 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| 106 | 110= | Yugoslavia (Fed. Republic) | 37.5 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| 107 | 130 | Cameroon | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| 108 | 117 | Bangladesh | 36.0 | 34.0 | 38.0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| 109= | 105= | Belarus | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| 109= | 99 | Libya | 35.5 | 37.0 | 34.0 | -3.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 111 | 104 | Kenya | 35.3 | 33.3 | 37.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| 112 | 112 | Senegal | 34.7 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| 113 | 120 | Nicaragua | 34.2 | 30.7 | 37.7 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| 114 | 151= | Argentina | 33.7 | 26.9 | 40.5 | 13.6 | 1.1 | 3.3 |
| 115 | 143 | Kyrghystan | 33.5 | 32.0 | 35.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| 116 | 110= | Gabon | 32.8 | 34.3 | 31.3 | -3.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 117= | 125 | Equatorial Guinea | 32.5 | 35.0 | 30.0 | -5.0 | 13.5 | 6.0 |
| 117= | 114= | Nigeria | 32.5 | 32.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| 117= | 126 | Sao Tome & Principe | 32.5 | 32.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| 120= | 121 | Mauritania | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 120= | 119 | Papua New Guinea | 32.0 | 30.5 | 33.5 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| 122 | 127 | Uruguay | 31.9 | 29.5 | 34.2 | 4.7 | -2.8 | 1.6 |
| 123 | 122 | Venezuela | 31.8 | 26.6 | 36.9 | 10.3 | -4.9 | 4.5 |
| 124 | 87 | Honduras | 31.7 | 30.3 | 33.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| 125 | 142 | Malawi | 31.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| 126= | 118 | Zambia | 30.8 | 30.3 | 31.3 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| 126= | 109 | Yemen | 30.8 | 31.5 | 30.0 | -1.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| 128= | 134= | Lesotho | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 128= | 150 | Uzbekistan | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| 130 | 107= | Syria | 29.7 | 30.3 | 29.0 | -1.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| 131 | 133 | Lebanon | 28.5 | 26.7 | 30.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 132 | 107= | Gambia | 28.0 | 29.0 | 27.0 | -2.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| 133= | 128= | Côte d’Ivoire | 27.8 | 24.0 | 31.7 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| 133= | 128= | Madagascar | 27.8 | 27.5 | 28.0 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 |
| 135 | 153 | Angola | 27.0 | 25.0 | 29.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 9.1 |
| 136 | 139 | Guinea-Bissau | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 1.5 |
| 137= | 140 | Burkina Faso | 25.3 | 24.5 | 26.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 |
| 137= | 141 | Mali | 25.3 | 25.0 | 25.5 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| 139 | 131= | Cambodia | 25.2 | 24.3 | 26.0 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 |
| 140= | 103 | Armenia | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| 140= | 151= | Benin | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| 140= | na | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 25.0 | 20.0 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 4.0 |
| 140= | 157 | Chad | 25.0 | 20.0 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| 144 | 131= | Paraguay | 24.5 | 20.7 | 28.3 | 7.7 | -0.7 | 1.7 |
| 145 | 146 | Seychelles | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| 146 | 124 | Ethiopia | 23.8 | 22.0 | 25.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| 147 | 149 | Central African Republic | 23.5 | 23.0 | 24.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 148= | 148 | Cape Verde | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 148= | 137= | Guinea | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 150 | 159 | Dem. Rep. of Congo (Zaire) | 22.8 | 21.7 | 24.0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| 151 | 113 | Turkmenistan | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 8.0 |
| 152 | 161 | Iraq | 22.3 | 6.0 | 38.5 | 32.5 | -2.8 | 13.5 |
| 153= | 134= | Niger | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 153= | 36= | Tajikistan | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| 155 | 145 | Myanmar | 19.8 | 19.5 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| 156= | na | Afghanistan | 19.5 | 18.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 4.6 |
| 156= | 156 | Burundi | 19.5 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 5.5 |
| 158 | 136 | Congo | 18.8 | 19.0 | 18.5 | -0.5 | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| 159 | 137= | Togo | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| 160 | 123 | Sudan | 17.3 | 17.0 | 17.5 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| 161= | 162 | Eritrea | 17.0 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| 161= | 144 | Nepal | 17.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| 163 | 160 | Swaziland | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| 164 | 163 | Djibouti | 13.5 | 14.0 | 13.0 | -1.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| 165 | 165 | Zimbabwe | 12.8 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 0.3 | -9.9 | -7.2 |
| 166 | 164 | Rwanda | 11.5 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| 167 | 158 | Sierra Leone | 10.3 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| 168 | 155 | Liberia | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 | -4.0 |
Economic projections methodology
Euromoney received replies from 32 economists at leading financial and economic institutions. They gave each country’s economic performance for 2003 and 2004 a score out of 100.
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