The European Central Bank’s governing council might not be meeting yet, but Deutsche Bank – who else? – has the inside track. For about six months its leading economists in 10 locations have been acting out a “shadow” ECB council which, in a monthly conference call, sets a shadow interest-rate policy for the euro.
“We knew interest rates after 1999 wouldn’t be Bundesbank rates because the national central bank governors will have a bias in favour of their home country,” says James Barty, Deutsche’s director of European economics.
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