US debt ceiling: Investors don’t believe the hype

If the Obama administration and the rating agencies are to be believed, the US is looking down the barrel of its first ever default. Yet yields on treasuries continue to set new lows and the dollar remains relatively stable. This paradox reflects the fact that investors don’t yet believe the hype about the consequences of a ceiling breach. Joti Mangat reports.

WHEN MOODY’S PLACED the US sovereign’s sacrosanct triple-A rating on review for possible downgrade on July 13, what had seemed an issue of minor concern a month earlier rapidly escalated into a full-blown crisis. This was fuelled further when just one day later Standard & Poor’s, which had already lowered its long-term ratings outlook to negative in April, added the US’s A-1+ short term rating to the negative watch list, noting that there was a “one-in-two likelihood that we could lower the long-term rating on the US within the next 90 days”.

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