Bi-annual Country risk survey which monitors the political and economic stability of 185 sovereign countries.
The overall country risk score includes:
• Political risk (25% weighting): risk of non-payment or non-servicing of payment for goods or services, loans, trade-related finance and dividends, and the non-repatriation of capital. Risk analysts give each country a score between 10 and zero: the higher, the better.
• Economic performance (25%): based on the results of a Euromoney poll of economic projections and on GNI (Atlas Method) figures per capita.
• Debt indicators (10%): calculated using these ratios from the World Bank’s Global Development Finance 2008: (a) total debt stocks to GNP; (b) debt service to exports; and (c) current account balance to GNP. Developing countries that do not report complete debt data get a score of zero.
• Debt in default or rescheduled (10%): scores are based on the ratio of rescheduled debt to debt stocks, taken from the World Bank’s Global Development Finance 2008. OECD and developing countries that do not report under the debtor reporting system score 10 and zero respectively.
• Credit ratings (10%): nominal values are assigned to sovereign ratings from Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch IBCA. The higher the average value, the better. Where there is no rating, countries score zero.
• Access to bank finance (5%): calculated from disbursements of private, long-term, unguaranteed loans as a percentage of GNP. Source: World Bank’s Global Development Finance 2008.
• Access to short-term finance (5%): takes into account OECD consensus groups (source: ECGD) and short-term cover available from the US Exim Bank and Atradius UK.
• Access to capital markets (5%): heads of debt syndicate and loan syndications rated each country’s accessibility to international markets.
• Discount on forfaiting (5%): reflects the average maximum tenor for forfaiting. Countries where forfaiting is not available score zero. We would like to thank Atradius, London Forfaiting, Mezra Forfaiting and WestLB, which kindly supplied data.
September 2008
It could be the perfect storm – financial, macroeconomic and geopolitical risk are all on the rise. Risk is both where you anticipate it, and where you least expect it.
March 2008
The US is in danger of dropping out of the top 10 in our semi-annual
country risk survey as fears of an economic downturn and an uncertain
political future dent analysts’ confidence.
September 2007
Despite the fallout from US sub-prime woes, analysts are optimistic about prospects for the global economy, as commodities remain strong. But the US drops out of the top five in Euromoney’s latest country risk rankings. Oliver Hexter reports.
February 2007
Event risk remains the biggest threat to the world’s economic prospects. But globalization means that, although economic imbalances might persist, the likelihood of a major worldwide correction is low.
September 2006
The latest country risk poll reflects a global economy in good health, despite a period of stock market volatility and the prospect of a slowdown. But the Middle East and the high price of oil could have far-reaching implications, writes Florian Neuhof. Research by Paul Pedzinski.
March 2006
Oil producers strike it rich, but long-term issues remain
The high price of oil highlights the fact that many economies are too reliant on raw materials exports, with governments creating unfavourable conditions for foreign investment through neglect or for political reasons. Florian Neuhof looks at the main drivers behind Euromoney’s latest country risk poll.
September 2005
Country risk index: Most countries have better access to capital than ever before and sovereign credit ratings have been on the rise for the past three years. But an increasingly tense geopolitical environment has led to marked decline in this year's country risk ratings. Research and analysis by Paul Pedzinski.
September 2005
A reveiw of 13 years of country risk, region by region. Emerging markets are now established as part of the fabric of international investment. But don't be fooled into thinking that the increased flow of investment follows a decline in risk. Research and analysis by Chloe Hayward.
March 2005
Country risk index: The latest Euromoney country risk survey reflects a slight downgrade in the assessment of overall risk levels despite sovereign upgrades from rating agencies.
September 2004
Country risk index: The latest Euromoney country risk survey, which for the first time incorporates data on perceptions of corruption, reflects continuing upheaval in the Middle East and Africa that is only partly compensated for by a favourable global trade environment.
March 2004
Country risk index: The strong currency is damaging economic performance in the eurozone. But the outlook for some emerging markets is brighter, thanks to rising commodity prices and improving prospects for Asia. Paul Pedzinski and Andrew Newby report.
September 2003
Country risk index: East Asia continues to lead the growth pack, but offers significant risk; Turkey is - once again - at a turning point; and Africa continues to be unsettled, but with less risk of inter-country contagion.
March 2003
Oil prices have helped cushion the effects of slack global growth for many energy exporters. Asian and European growth is accelerating but there are wide regional variations and the World Bank warns that the world economy may well slide into recession.
September 2002
Euromoney’s analysts have taken a measured view of such hyperbole as the “axis of evil” and resisted over-reacting to the situation in such regional crisis points as southern Africa. Latin America’s troubled economies suffer the severest downgrades.
March 2002
Six months ago rising oil prices, the bursting of the new economy bubble and weaker financial markets were increasing the dangers of a recession even before the blow of September 11. Although the direct effects of the attacks have been relatively small and sector-specific, the effect on business confidence is likely to be large in the short term. In our latest review of country prospects Euromoney's panel of experts has revised down average global projections for 2002-03 for 79 countries and has revised up 105. On balance, consensus growth forecasts indicate strong resurgence in 2003.
September 2001
Amid mounting concerns about a global economic slowdown, it is still country-specific political and economic factors that are propelling nations up and down the country risk rankings. There have been marked drops for such countries as Argentina, Zimbabwe, and Indonesia but no sign of fears of contagion spreading to their neighbours.
March 2001
In the past Euromoney’s country risk ratings have been reliable lead indicators of dips and surges in the world’s economic cycle. Six months ago the global economy looked in fine fettle, underpinned by favourable commodity prices and strong growth in developed countries. Financial markets are fearful this is about to change. Analysts’ forecasts for economic performance are noticeably lower than in September’s survey. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Research by Damon Ivanics and Andrew Newby
September 2000
It has been a busy year for presidential and parliamentary elections - and coup attempts. Throw in worker unrest (Peru, Ecuador, Ghana), violent separatism in Indonesia and looming emerging market elections and it would be wise to expect big changes in Euromoney’s first Country Risk ranking in 2001. Keri Geiger reports
January 2000
The last six months have seen a marked turnaround for the world economy. A year ago the larger emerging-market countries were falling in the rankings as investors lost confidence in Brazil, Russia and other crisis-ridden giants. This year favourable commodity prices, better risk management and buoyant developed country economies point to better times ahead. There are some big winners in the latest Euromoney country risk ranking. Research by Andrew Newby.
September 1999
The emerging markets are bouncing back - at least some of them are. While they do, the market is holding its breath as crisis-hit countries implement fiscal and monetary reforms. And while economists believe growth rates will improve, they are also resigned to sovereign defaults on foreign debt. Commentary by Rebecca Cicolecchia, research by Alexa Marx.
March 1999
December 1997
After the emerging-markets crisis, which countries remain creditworthy?
March 1997
Continental Europe makes way for Scandinavia and North America in Euromoney's biannual survey of country creditworthiness. Pressure to conform to Maastricht criteria on Emu has dampened growth, tightened budget deficits and weakened consumer demand. High unemployment and currency weaknesses have pushed countries such as Switzerland, France and Italy down the ranking. Rebecca Dobson reports.
September 1996
In Euromoney's semi-annual ranking of country creditworthiness, the winners are the emerging countries of east and central Europe. But south-east Asian economies and even Japan are looking riskier, as debt ratios worsen and monetary instability spreads. Commentary by Rebecca Dobson.
March 1996
Economists now predict an upturn in the world economy. Country scores in Euromoney's country risk ranking, based on our poll of economists and political analysts, plus market data and World Bank debt figures, have jumped by an average of 2.75 percentage points. Research and commentary by Charles Piggott.