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The main features of the euro rescue plan are now appearing and there is hope that they will crystallise at the G20 meetings, including an outline of the “federal” structure.
Published October 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Though euro crisis is not yet over, the banks are being made to recapitalise in readiness for Greek debt restructuring.
Published October 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Little from Jackson Hole, but opinion is changing in favour of recognition that the West faces years of slow growth and that central banks can do no more to help
Published September 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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The objective of the Chinese Government is first to implement Renminbi internationalization, then convertibility. To be considered as a international currency, China should development its financial markets. In this context, bond markets is gradually opening to international investors.
Published September 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Will the politicians save the euro before Greece defaults? What are the Chinese doing? Already the RMB is bond issuing and Asian trading currency. Reserve currency next?
Published September 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Flattening the yield curve, clearly the objective of the Fed at least, sounds like a good idea to improve borrowing. Unfortunately it ignores the problems created for banks.
Published September 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Bridport Investor Services thought the Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke would announce a third round of quantative easing, however the lack of announcements at Jackson Hole has been hailed as a disappointment
Published September 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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“True economic governance”? What a fudge! We ask whether the weak announcement from Sarkozy and Merkel is a measure of poor leadership of political realism.
Published August 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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The best hope now is that the ECB stop gap measures work, that federalisation of the euro zone advances and that the recession is “L-shaped”, not a double-dip “W”.
Published August 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Now that the Congressional brinkmanship is over, markets clearly see the inadequacies of the US budget plan as well as the chronic structural problems of the euro zone.
Published August 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Published July 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Palliative measures to economic malaise are being proposed on both sides of the Atlantic, with little attention to underlying problems of budget deficits and a needed monetary union.
Published July 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Published July 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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In view of the public disapproval of banks, it might be thought that banks would be wiser to acquiesce to proposals to separate retail from investment banking
Published June 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Trichet agrees with us that federalisation is the answer, too! The movement is underway but with opposition in both the rich North and the poor South of the EU.
Published June 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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A temporary solution to the euro zone’s problems is on the cards, along with federalisation as a longer-term outlook. Meanwhile the situation in the USA is not improving.
Published June 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Whether the EUR or USD is “stinkier” is debateable, but it is clear that political considerations are taking precedence over economic both for possible QE3 and defence of the euro.
Published May 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Prevarication is the order of the day: postpone the day of reckoning for the Federal debt ceiling to August 2nd and delay proper resolution of Greek’s problems by extending maturities.
Published May 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Consider the parallel between the USA and China today and the USA and UK of yesteryear. Massive indebtedness of one country another implies ceding much power to the creditor nation.
Published May 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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The USA is in an economic and political impasse. Economically Bin Laden's demise my not matter much, but politically it is crucial, giving newfound authority of President Obama
Published May 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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The EUR has problems, the USD falling, gold and silver soaring -- can this be a full-blown monetary crisis, or a controlled change in the world monetary system?
Published April 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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S&P has now followed the Chinese Dagong in questioning the AA rating of Treasury debt, another step in the loss of the “exorbitant privilege” of owning the reserve/trading currency.
Published April 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Many months ago, when we first suspected that the USA could not face up to austerity, we reckoned it would be forced upon the nation by the market.
Published April 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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The US economy is recovering, but only because of cheap money. In contrast, Europe appears to on a path to normalisation of bond markets and central bank policy.
Published April 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Two major riddles: when will inflation hit the US economy and will quantitative easing be extended beyond June? We suspect QE extension but the inflation issue is a full mystery.
Published March 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Japanese rebuilding, the Arab Awakening and China’s “Lewis turning point” all point to good news for Western economies wanting to increase exports, but bad for T-Bonds and interest rates.
Published March 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Every central bank has tightened or expects to, except the Fed. Inflation lets debt decline. Is someone whispering as much in Bernanke’s ear? Does that mean a QE3 come June?
Published March 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Which way now? So many dilemmas. For Bernanke, to print money or tighten. Has the USD lost its shine? Safety or yield for investors?
Published March 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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Three great dangers to the world economy have become more apparent in the wake of the Libyan uprising. The G20 meetings achieves little on the issue of monetary reserves.
Published February 2011 Bridport bond outlook
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A falling dollar, rising commodity prices, and inflation in Asia threaten the standard of living in the West and especially in the USA, and undermine the reserve currency system.
Published February 2011 Bridport bond outlook
