-
There is no easy way out of the overleveraged situation many governments have got into. A sovereign debt crisis looms, and not just for the most profligate.
Euromoney March 2010
-
Greece has a tough road ahead of it to restore economic health and credibility. But those who believe it will default, leave the eurozone or abandon the EU are living in a fantasy world.
Euromoney February 2010
-
Germany’s fiscal discipline imperative, which perforce will be imposed on the whole eurozone, is the key to a more dynamic, less state-heavy EU economy.
Euromoney January 2010
-
The financial markets rally cannot be maintained because there is no way we can go back to the bubble economy of the past that was gorged by excess leverage. Far from being unwound, this has been sustained by governments.
Euromoney December 2009
-
The financial markets bounce is unsustainable. Demand will fall and corporate costs will rise as artificial stimulus is withdrawn and fiscal retrenchment kicks in. Expect an almighty splat as the markets drop.
Euromoney November 2009
-
Gordon Brown’s government has no clear strategy for dealing with the budget deficit. Nor does its likely successor, the Conservatives led by David Cameron.
Euromoney October 2009
-
The buoyant stock market is built on credit stimuli that cannot continue until there is a recovery in the real economy – and that is still way over the horizon.
Euromoney September 2009
-
Increased government borrowing is an unsound way to stave off recession. It puts sustained economic growth in peril rather than promoting it.
Euromoney August 2009
-
Big overseas holders of US dollar assets, with China at the forefront, will not be sold another pup. Instead of supporting wayward US financial policies they will increasingly diversify to other currencies.
Euromoney July 2009
-
The authorities have run out of ways to deal with the debt overhang and to create new credit. The only palatable way out looks to be a period of generalized inflation
Euromoney June 2009
-
There are limited IMF funds for ailing emerging economies, available only on stiff terms, and that means serious consequences for those that have lent to them.
Euromoney May 2009
-
Germany’s commitment to the EU project will guarantee bailouts for weaker eurozone members. But it’s a different story for hard-pressed central and eastern European states and their banks.
Euromoney April 2009
-
The eurozone’s advantages for both strong and weak members far outweigh any disadvantages that might incline countries to walk away.
Euromoney March 2009
-
This year is not set to be one of economic recovery – the financial assets that are cheap are cheap for a very good reason, and it’s not a propitious one.
Euromoney February 2009
-
The spread of the credit crisis to emerging countries will have more than just domestic repercussions.
Euromoney December 2008
-
Governments worldwide have moved to recapitalize banks. But the amounts injected will only be sufficient to avert a great depression; they are not enough to sustain lending and avert a global recession.
Euromoney November 2008
-
Short of a radical restructuring of the banking sector, the US government bailout will prompt a market rally. However the longer-term effects will be deleterious.
Euromoney October 2008