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Only suckers believe that the remedies applied to the credit crisis have cured the underlying sickness. There’s more painful adjustment to come, and it could last two to five years.
Euromoney May 2008
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More assets are yet to be hit in the credit crisis and, as leverage continues to fall out of play, liquidity will keep on drying up. Equity prices are bound to fall still further too.
Euromoney April 2008
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The effects of the sub-prime crisis are spreading and could cost 2.5% of world GDP. Emerging market economies will not be immune.
Euromoney March 2008
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The bad news: in 2008 a global recession is bound to set in. The scant good news: the oil price will fall back and the development of environment-friendly technology will fuel investment.
Euromoney February 2008
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Eastern Europe has borrowed cheaply this decade to fund a credit binge. Now, as the global credit crisis starts to bite, the region’s economies are becoming increasingly vulnerable.
Euromoney January 2008
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The big banks’ Mlec fund might well unblock the present credit log jam. But there’s no escaping the fact that global liquidity has contracted and capital is being repriced upwards.
Euromoney December 2007
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Global liquidity is set to keep contracting and inflation will keep on increasing despite a growth slowdown. There is a serious risk of global recession in 2008.
Euromoney November 2007
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The global economy may be strong, but that does not make it immune to cyclical liquidity contraction.
Euromoney September 2007
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Bond markets are still too sanguine about inflation prospects. But present global growth rates will inevitably drain liquidity from the financial system.
Euromoney August 2007
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The world economy is set to keep growing fast for the next few months. But this will take an inevitable toll on the cost of capital, which is already rising.
Euromoney July 2007
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Market mechanisms, not inflexible penal taxation, are the way to deal with global warming. And market approaches also open profitable channels for investors.
Euromoney June 2007
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The present run of stock market buoyancy cannot be sustained. And that’s not just because credit is set to contract – so, too, are corporate profits.
Euromoney May 2007
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The recent sell-off in global stock markets will not be a repeat of last May – a short correction leading to new highs. There is now more to worry about in the global economy and the liquidity cycle is at a turning point.
Euromoney April 2007
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Market expectations of interest rate stability fly in the face of growing signs of inflationary pressure and the likelihood of a move by the Federal Reserve.
Euromoney March 2007
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Nothing is more likely to cause instability than a long period of stability. And excessive growth of credit and liquidity is a clear warning sign of crashes to come, probably within the next year.
Euromoney February 2007
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Strong business confidence, healthy demand for German products and an increasing share of income going to capital belie fears that Germany’s growth rate is under threat.
Euromoney January 2007
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Continuing high levels of capital liquidity rest on flows from securitization and derivatives, and from dollar dominance in international trade. Neither source is immune to a violent adjustment.
Euromoney December 2006
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There are signs that liquidity-generated inflation is spreading from financial bubbles into the output economy.
Euromoney November 2006
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Eurozone countries are continuing to boost productivity vis-à-vis that in the US; consequently European equities are outperforming American ones.
Euromoney October 2006
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Inflation is set to feed into the US economy, with destructive effects. But the beginning of the process won’t be the consumer slowdown that so many expect.
Euromoney September 2006
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With the recent sell-off behind them, Japanese and eurozone equities look to be more attractive growth or defensive prospects than US stocks.
Euromoney August 2006
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Less liquidity in equity markets suggests that investment strategies harnessing volatility are appropriate.
Euromoney July 2006
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The ability of the US to run a high current account deficit rests on a widespread belief that inflation and the cost of capital will remain low. But the conditions that underpin the deficit and the dollar’s role as the principal source of global capital are unlikely to be sustained for long.
Euromoney June 2006
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Forget the stymied constitution, Parisian événements, electoral tangles and government overspending – eurozone corporates are doing just fine and consumers are picking up on the mood.
Euromoney May 2006
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The US housing boom is set to collapse, with adverse effects on domestic consumption. This, unlike the slowdowns in Australia and the UK, will have a marked effect on global growth.
Euromoney April 2006
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Conflict over oil and gas supplies is set to fuel tension between western Europe and Russia in coming years.
Euromoney March 2006
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A repricing of capital is coming soon. But advances in risk management suggest it will be a prolonged process, not a quick flip into deflation.
Euromoney February 2006
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Europe is in better shape than a cursory examination of its politicians might suggest.
Euromoney January 2006
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Japanese equities are at the start of a sustained bull market that in the next two years will take the Nikkei well above 20,000 from its current 14,000 level.
Euromoney December 2005
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China’s inefficient economy is under threat because its capital costs are set to rise, but it is as likely to falter because US consumerism hits the wall. And there are signs that American profligacy cannot be sustained much longer
Euromoney November 2005