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The bear case for EM FX

The bear case for EM FX

August 2015

Emerging market (EM) FX is convulsing amid deflationary fears in China – the engine of EM growth – with the crash in its equity market illustrating the loss of control of its authorities. Meanwhile, the US inches closer to raising rates, while there is a risk of a technical blow-up among EM market-makers.


The bull case for EM FX

August 2015

China’s economic downward spiral and weakening renminbi has dragged down neighbouring countries’ currencies and burnt investor appetite for emerging markets (EMs), but as currencies hit record lows and approach fair value, some market participants smell a ‘buying opportunity’.

Sun shines on Mauritius as risk experts upgrade sovereign

August 2015

The Indian Ocean island seems to have turned the corner and is pushing higher in Euromoney’s country risk survey rankings.

Markets mull RMB devaluation and Fed policy link

August 2015

China’s shock RMB devaluation is unlikely to influence the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike, or otherwise, in September, but it could shape the path of subsequent increases, say analysts.

Banks seek to nurture emerging fintech talent

August 2015

Rather than relying exclusively on in-house platforms, or buying in third-party resources, banks are benefiting from nurturing the next generation of talent to experiment with emerging fintech solutions. Citi, Commerzbank and DBS reveal their incubator strategies.

Markets adjust to new RMB normal

August 2015

Analysts foresee a surge in corporate FX hedging activity, onshore and offshore RMB spreads to normalize, and a dip in dim sum issuance after the RMB’s shock adjustment.

FX technology bets to drive dealer market shares

August 2015

The jury is out on whether the rise of tech-savvy non-banks means FX banks should adopt either a full service, market champion model or a simplified, limited service provider model, or something in between.

Iceland’s improving risk score points to A-grade

August 2015

The world’s northernmost borrower is beginning to look like a decent credit again, thanks to stronger financial safeguards and a plan to remove capital controls cementing a recovery now delivering impressive macro-fundamentals.

Liquidity rule forces corporate deposit rethink

August 2015

Basel III’s liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) – the first binding attempt to micro-manage lenders’ liquidity buffers – has fundamentally altered the status of corporate deposits, triggering treasurers to transform their liquidity-management strategies.

New Nordea CEO to focus on compliance and simplification

August 2015

Casper von Koskull, the head of wholesale banking who steps up to become group CEO in November, remains a big fan of the universal banking model.

FX providers mull outsourcing through the cloud

August 2015

Areas of the FX market where outsourced or cloud solutions have the potential to exert a greater impact include platforms that electronify the workflows associated with FX options trading, although bank conservatism is likely to prolong the lifespan of in-house solutions.

China stuns markets with sudden currency devaluation

August 2015

Everyone knew a revaluation of renminbi was coming sooner or later, yet China's announcement, including reform of the dollar fixing mechanism, caught many off guard. The move left observers debating whether it was stimulating its economy or acquiescing to calls for exchange-rate liberalization.

FX technology investment strategies revealed

August 2015

While substantial investment has been made in FX technology since the global financial crisis, there are areas of the market where its impact has yet to be felt.

Emerging markets: special focus

August 2015

A cyclical blip in a structural bull market or a fundamental re-appraisal of the growth and investment prospects in developing economies? Euromoney wades into the debate about the recent bear run in emerging markets and provides coverage of FX, fixed income and equity market trends.

US dollar: special focus

August 2015

The dollar suffered as a result of the Federal Reserve's massive quantitative easing programme. In 2012 it was the second-weakest performing G10 currency after the yen. That helped extend the bear trend that the dollar has been trapped in since 2002. But now, sentiment towards the dollar appears to be turning. Many believe that US growth is set to be the strongest among developed nations and that, while it will not happen immediately, the Fed will be the first among the world's big-three central banks to start withdrawing monetary stimulus. Could the 11-year regime of dollar weakness be about to end?

Bitcoin: special focus

August 2015

Cryptocurrency space – the final frontier for money. Below is the voyage of starship Euromoney. Its mission: to explore strange new digital currencies, to seek out new payments systems and gateways, to boldly go where no financial magazine has gone before...

Country risk: Why betting on Ukraine is for the fortuitous or foolhardy

August 2015

Only time will tell if snapping up Ukrainian bonds before its creditor negotiations are complete is fortuitous or foolhardy, but what cannot be denied are the enormous risks involved.

Beware ‘Wild West’ of FX options

August 2015

Brokers and even the likes of Western Union are finding success in selling complex foreign-exchange options to small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as banks retreat from servicing their smaller customers, but industry figures warn of a new ‘Wild West’ and the need for robust compliance standards.

FX volatility: calm before the storm?

August 2015

FX traders have happily reported an increase in volatility during the past year, driven by the onset of divergent G7 central bank policies, after several years of relative abeyance. Though volatilities have softened in recent summer months, US rate rises from September could re-trigger turbulence.

Electronification of Asian FX on the rise

August 2015

Fuelled by regional treasury centres, electronification of FX is gathering pace in Asia.

Digital solutions streamline corporate banking

August 2015

Corporates managing multiple bank accounts are finding digital solutions to improve efficiency, including electronic bank account management (eBAM) and virtual accounts.

Russia-Ukraine conflict: special focus

August 2015

Euromoney's coverage of the economic and financial fallout from the conflict.

SME financing: special focus

August 2015

The vexed battle to finance small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) continues in the eurozone and UK amid risk aversion, economic weakness, new regulations and banks’ balance-sheet repair. Project Merlin, Funding for Lending, Agency for Business Lending (ABL) and Breedon Report recommendations all aim to increase financing for SMEs. Here is a round-up of Euromoney's recent coverage.

Financial regulation: special focus

August 2015

China: special focus

August 2015

From rebalancing of the economy and financial reform to the internationalization of the renminbi, Euromoney sheds light on China’s economic challenges amid the global spotlight.

The CEO issue

August 2015

Interviews with CEOs of top banks around the globe, including Bank of Cyprus, ING, Santander Rio, and Standard Bank.

No Eurobond plan for Nigeria Access Bank post Moody's rating

July 2015

Access Bank has become the second bank in Nigeria to receive a rating from Moody’s, illustrating the bank’s strengths despite challenging macroeconomic conditions.

No respite for embattled Zimbabwe stocks

July 2015

Liquidity on Zimbabwe’s bourse has been hit hard year-to-date, amid the domestic political funk and a lack of foreign-investor appetite for sub-Saharan Africa, more generally.

Standard Bank embarks on software transformation drive

July 2015

Standard Bank is the first bank in Africa to implement core banking systems SAP and Finacle, amid ever-increasing pressures to consolidate client data.

Ecobank CIB: what the numbers say

July 2015

Despite headwinds affecting banks in West Africa, Ecobank group’s financial results have been supported by strong CIB business in the region. Euromoney digs into the numbers.



           
 

SELECTED CHAPTERS

Transparency in the FX industry

Redefining Conduct

Tectonic Shifts

Growth Currency

Looks Can Be Deceiving

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