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| African Eurobond plans off the table after oil price plunge March 2020  Africa’s oil exporters are feeling the pressure after the crash in the oil price and fears of the coronavirus Covid-19, as investors pull money from international bond markets. Oil vs coronavirus: How will Gulf economies fare? March 2020  A double shock of Covid-19 and falling oil prices brings the spectre of recession to the Gulf, while efforts to diversify economies are being derailed. Nigeria could slip again on oil March 2020  The recent collapse in the oil price and Nigeria's (lack of) reaction to it echoes the way the country dealt with the crisis in 2015. Repetition of the same mistakes will only cause harm for Africa's largest economy. Mexico: Banks free Pemex from bondage May 2019 HSBC, JPMorgan and Mizuho lend Mexico’s oil company $8 billion after investors show no interest in non-deal roadshow – and that’s the least of the firm’s problems. Middle East: Leaders who guided a region through 50 turbulent years March 2019  Over 50 years, leaders of Middle East financial institutions have steered their businesses through very good and very bad times, including oil price crashes, rampant property and stock speculation, and war. Some key figures highlight the events they remember most and spell out lessons for the next generation. Can the Gulf break the habit of half a century? March 2019  Less than five years after Euromoney began, the Arab oil embargo gave international finance a shot in the arm and provided an extraordinary windfall to the Gulf, but as the oil boom has repeatedly turned to bust, commodity cycles have laid bare the vacuity of the region’s diversification programmes. Today, with local populations expanding, harder and less stable times could lie ahead if the region does not take more drastic action – even when oil prices bounce back. Gulf country risk: Qatar, Saudi Arabia on shakier ground February 2019  Prospects are improving, but the negative impact of Qatar’s isolation, given oil price volatility and the lack of diversification, has removed the cushion of safety the region took for granted. Saudi Arabia gets MSCI recognition July 2018  Inclusion in the emerging market index is recognition of the country’s reforms and could bring $50 billion of foreign investment. Country risk: Russia takes centre stage June 2018  When the World Cup fanfare is over, investors must gauge whether the country represents a better bet than other emerging markets – and there are still some nagging doubts. Southern Africa’s new leaders still have much to prove May 2018  The new presidents of Angola, South Africa and Zimbabwe could do better, but banks and investors will have plenty of due diligence to do when deciding whether or not and how to commit more resources to these countries. Nigerian banks make a mint from a crisis May 2018  Oil prices and currency controls created opportunities for some banks, which reported bumper gains from FX and fixed income last year, but no one is expecting a repeat of that. Can lending keep them sweet? Country risk: Debt-ridden Angola turns a corner May 2018  The new president has made the start required to ensure investors take notice, with higher oil prices increasing liquidity, corruption addressed and business regulation improving. Baiduri Bank bemoans the burden of Brunei’s bounty March 2018 Financial markets are woefully underdeveloped in this oil- and gas-rich country. For Baiduri Bank, which is mulling a listing in Kuala Lumpur, that makes growing a tough proposition. The conservation conversation after Bears Ears December 2017
Ghana’s next oil boom is just around the corner November 2017
Oil has Oman over a barrel September 2017
Country risk: Russia is on the long road back June 2017
Azerbaijan’s risks are spiralling May 2017
Africa: Ghana’s power failure May 2017
Middle East: Saudi banks breathe as liquidity fears ease May 2017
New Kuwait highlights the same old problems April 2017 Despite the halving of the oil price and the fact that 90% of Kuwait’s fiscal revenues come from sales of oil, the emirate is still expected to have a budget surplus this year. Asia: Singapore banks can’t shake oil services headache March 2017 Blighted by souring loans; boosted by wealth management. Will ETF providers join the Church and save the planet? March 2017
Religious organizations are challenging corporations over climate change, while big investors stay mute.
FX: Opec finally reaches deal to cut oil production December 2016 After failing to reach agreement at its last two meetings, Opec agreed this week to cut oil output for the first time in eight years. The oil price responded favourably, but lingering doubts about the finer details could mean the impact is short lived. Price pressures force change in oil and gas treasury strategy November 2016 The oil and gas sector has so far avoided making wholesale change to its treasury processes, but as the low price environment continues, firms are now being forced to explore cost cutting. Mexico: Pemex woes deepen amid oil rout May 2016
Country risk: Oil crisis sharpens Nigeria’s investor risks April 2016
Energy: PE weighs risks as banks shun oil and gas M&A: Energy consolidation on cards as oil price tanks January 2015 Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2014: Negative oil shock creates new threats January 2015 |
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Oil price lessons from 1983December 2014Crude oil prices dropped precipitously in the latter part of 2014, raising challenging questions about where they might go in 2015. Undershooting well below a mythical fundamental equilibrium price is a distinct possibility if history is any guide. Oil might soon be $25 a barrel or lessFrom the archives - February 1983:What Bluford H Putnam and Lee Thomas said about the falling oil price in 1983. |
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Inside investment: Oil – let it flow, let it flow
December 2014
Oh the markets outside are frightful, but the dollar is so delightful, add oil for a rosy glow, let it flow, let it flow, let it flow.
US high-yield feels full force of oil price collapse
December 2014
Some parts of the US market are ‘carnage’; energy bond maturity wall is not due until after 2017.
Emerging markets ride 2014 FX rollercoaster
December 2014
"At the current price of oil, India will practically eliminate its current-account deficit, for the first time in a decade, which should mitigate pressure on the rupee."
Global economy's end-of-year verdict: 'Try harder'Sponsored by VTB Capital; December 2014There is an elevated risk of a global recession in 2015 given eurozone stagflation, setbacks in Japan, a debt-ridden China, the risk of the oil-price collapse triggering geopolitical risk and diminishing returns from G7 monetary stimulus. |
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Sliding oil price heightens risks for energy-exporting nations
December 2014 euromoney.com
Economists have been downgrading oil exporters’ risk scores in recent weeks, but there might be worse to come if spot prices and petro-currencies continue to fall.
Against the tide: A new era for energy
December 2014
The recent dramatic fall in the crude oil price poses the question: is this just a blip due to temporary fears about global economic growth, or is it the start of a longer-term shift in market dynamics?
Middle East
September 2017
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Middle East: Kuwait still cooking with falling oil
April 2015
The country is vulnerable to a continuing low oil price, but that doesn’t seem to be stopping it from keeping up the pace of capital projects. And there are still plenty of reforms to make if the state is to develop the economy.
Saudi risk score plummets as oil shock intensifies
December 2014The sovereign’s risk score has fallen in recent days as lower oil prices add to the Kingdom’s existing economic, political and structural weaknesses.
Africa
Angola goes after diversification
September 2015
The fall in the oil price and the de-dollarization of the economy has done even more to highlight Angola’s over-dependence on oil. As a result, the diversification of the economy is higher-up on the government’s agenda than ever before.
Angola: New exchange faces liquidity question
September 2015
Chief executive admits concerns; equity trading planned for 2016.
Nigeria’s investment banks feel the squeeze
July 2015
Like everything else in Nigeria, investment banking will be hit by weak oil prices. Local players may struggle more than their global counterparts.
Nigeria's troubles hold lessons for corporate IB
July 2015
Commodity price drop will drive NPLs; difficulties could help local capital markets.
Nigeria: falling oil price, crumbling legitimacy?
June 2015
Depressed oil prices mean that government revenue in Nigeria is sliding but raising revenue without alienating Nigeria’s most vulnerable will be a difficult feat.
Africa: Nigeria’s banks stare down the barrel
May 2015
Inspired by the previous government’s agenda, Nigeria’s banks loaded up on loans to local oil and gas companies. The rapid decline in the price of oil has put many of the companies they lent to in distress. Can the banks cope with the potential fall-out?
Nigeria: Good luck, Buhari
May 2015
Peaceful elections in Nigeria herald a new era for the country, but will the elation last while depressed oil prices hold back the country’s development?
Emerging markets: Weak oil prices, stronger Africa
February 2015
The falling oil price has hit oil exporters hard, especially in Africa. But the region has three strengths that should protect its capital markets from the current crisis.
Angolan SWF chairman calls for greater support as oil price falls
December 2014
The Angolan government could provide greater financial support to its fledgling $5 billion sovereign wealth fund (SWF), according to its chairman, amid rising concerns over the impact falling oil prices will have on the country's economy.
Carlyle picks up stake in Nigeria's Diamond Bank
November 2014
Executives from Diamond Bank and Carlyle reveal the rationale for the latter's investment in the lender, citing the long-term investment horizon despite the oil-driven volatility in Nigeria’s economy.
Angola sets sights on capital-markets reform
November 2014
Following the global financial crisis, Angola’s economy took another blow and further delayed the opening of the exchange. With heavy reliance on oil exports, the crisis saw prices for Angola’s crude plummet from around $140 per barrel to $60. Unable to pay back loans secured by oil revenue, construction came to a halt. Angola was forced to turn to the IMF for support.
Latin America
Oil slump raises Venezuela default riskFebruary 2016Sovereign highly exposed to oil price drop; default still not fully priced into bonds.
Oil pours trouble on Venezuela’s economy
September 2015
Parallel FX rate rockets; default more and more likely.
Oil drop prompts Mexico review
April 2015
Growth rates revised downwards; investors still 'cautiously’ optimistic.
Colombia faces oil price test
December 2014
No short-term response to price shift; fiscal discipline key to economy.
Latin America: Sovereigns shape up for differentiation
November 2014
"Mexico is going to be a new player and a strong player and it has tremendous potential. Oil companies are going to be interested in investing in Mexico...But Colombia will remain competitive"
Emerging Europe
Russia's risk score plummets to its lowest since 1998 default
November 2014
If oil prices remain low for a prolonged period and, simultaneously, Russian companies’ and banks’ access to foreign funding is severely curtailed, "we are likely to see a significant uplift in sovereign and banks’ credit risk."
Russia central bank attempts rouble crisis circuit-breaker
November 2014
Russia incentive to implement difficult reforms has an inverse correlation to the oil price, and oil-price surges back to $100-per-barrel levels could further delay fiscal efforts.
Asia
Taxing times for Indonesia’s new finance minister
May 2015
Technocrat Bambang Brodjonegoro has plans to turn the country’s state-owned enterprises into regional, if not global, leaders. But the fall in the oil price could quickly scupper his ambitions, unless he can improve Indonesia’s terrible record on tax collection.
Oil and Abenomics in the great yen tug of war
January 2015
The yen has been quietly strengthening in recent days, amid renewed concerns about global demand pushing down the price of oil and fresh fears over Europe. If this trend persists, it could be problematic for Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, who is closely associated with a policy of yen weakness.