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September 1998

September 1998

Global capital turns nasty

Euromoney September 1998

Who is surprised by the savage way markets have punished politicians, bankers, speculators and economists? The structure of financial markets needs a rethink. Our cover story tears them apart as follows:

Features

The gold-diggers of Europe 1999

Euromoney September 1998

You've heard of America's forty-niners, well these are the ninety-niners, preparing for the gold-rush when Europe's single currency rolls into play in January. A frenzy of asset-allocation has already started. With a single interest rate, corporate bonds will begin to outweigh government issues, equity markets will take on new importance, and cross-border competition will drive M&A. Peter Lee reports.

Russia: A superpower falls apart

Euromoney September 1998

It finally happened. After lurching from crisis to crisis - muddling through with partial reforms and quick fixes - Russia has finally crashed out of orbit. So who is to blame? Ronan Lyons looks at the key actors in the drama. Who are the seven oligarchs and were they behind the decision to devalue? What was really happening in the governments of Chernomyrdin and Kiriyenko? And what was the role of the IMF and western investors?

The bargain hunter

Euromoney September 1998

From the Silk Road, to Basingstoke, to Buenos Aires, the HSBC Group has grown into one of the most formidable names in international banking. Its recent spurt of acquisitions - which have made it the most profitable bank in the world three years running - were masterminded by the workaholic Scotsman William Purves, who gave up the role of chairman this year. His long-time deputy, John Bond, is today the taipan of a bancassurance group that grew out of the old HongkongBank founded in 1865 in a diversification strategy that is looking wiser by the day. HSBC now has a major presence in the UK, the Middle East and Latin America and owns a regional bank in America - as well as being the premier regional bank in Asia. In his first interview, the dapper Bond - shunning the HSBC-hexagon tie that Purves would have worn - sets out his vision for the bank. He spoke to Steven Irvine for two hours about bank bail-outs, who his benchmarks are, his "indispensable" investment bank and why he can't leave a room without turning off the light.

Japan: Banking system or welfare state?

Euromoney September 1998

For foreigners, Japan is a topsy-turvy land where economic theory stands on its head. Nowhere more so than in the banking sector, a gravity-defying edifice which appears to be propping up the entire economy. If you were to rebuild it, you wouldn't start from here. But it has a terrifying logic, eloquently defended by Japan's elite. And remember, they wouldn't be in this mess if the Basle committee had been tougher 10 years ago. Steven Irvine reports.

Can't change - won't change

Euromoney September 1998

The men charged with sorting out Korea's sickly, debt-laden corporate sector are making many of the right noises, but old habits are proving hard to break. A year after they went bust, Kia is still churning out cars and Jinro is still brewing the nation's favourite tipple. Jack Lowenstein reports on the dangerous brew of nationalism, legal failings and bureaucratic intransigence which is preventing Korea Inc from getting back on its feet.

Scavengers and scratchers of value

Euromoney September 1998

Vicious dogs and bottom-dwelling, scum-sucking creatures of the deep - and that's just what they call themselves. But don't be too unkind to the vulture funds hunting for deals in Asia, they are playing a useful role in bringing value back to a depressed continent. And they are not the only ones doing deals. Conglomerates are restructuring and western financial institutions are looking for partners. We profile a mixed bunch of Asia's top deal makers. Some are ex-soldiers, some are former consultants and analysts. One is even a leading Asian central banker

Uriarte's Latin springboard

Euromoney September 1998

Pedro Luis Uriarte's timing on emerging markets seemed brilliant. The CEO of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, Spain's second largest bank by assets, scaled back in Asia and Russia ahead of the crises. But will his luck hold in Latin America? In the last three years BBV has invested $3 billion buying stakes in banks and financial institutions in 12 Latin countries with major deals in Brazil and Chile sown up recently. Uriarte, whose mantra is shareholder value, aims to compensate for lower margins in Europe by reaping higher returns in Latin America. If he succeeds, BBV may rank among the world's top 10 banks by market capitalization. But the risks are high. Since the emerging markets storm blew up, BBV's share price has fallen 25% and rating agencies have put it under review for a downgrade. In an interview with Brian Caplen, Uriarte is adamant that the bank's Latin earnings will be unaffected. He speaks about the bank's acquisition strategy in Europe, his management style, his relationship with his chairman, Emilio Ybarra, and his wish to retire before the mandatory age of 62 Uriarte is 55 and became CEO in 1994. He has worked at the bank since 1974 taking a four-year break in the early 1980s to be minister of economy and finance for the Basque regional government.

Different ways to skin a cat

Euromoney September 1998

Their mission is the same: to hunt down and execute mandates. They're all winners. Yet their tactics differ greatly, reflecting the varied cast of characters now reigning on Wall Street - tough New Yorkers, Cuban exiles, a laid-back Brazilian, an English lawyer, even a Senegalese photographer. Brian Caplen investigates the mix.

Crying out for corporate funding

Euromoney September 1998

Mexican corporates are raring to go but the borrowing outlook is grim. International markets are expensive, the local banking sector weak. The big names can raise funds but may be hit because their customers are cash-strapped. By Matthew Doman.

Dawn raid in Vienna

Euromoney September 1998

European cartel watchdogs swooped on seven Austrian banks in June believing there was evidence of a price-fixing ring. Not so, say Austrian bankers, just an informal luncheon club. What's the truth? And what triggered the interest from Brussels? It's a story of Euro-politics, cut-throat competition, a little history and a tragic suicide. David Shirreff reports.

The quest for securitization

Euromoney September 1998

Imagine the volume of issuance if German mortgage banks were allowed to securitize their home loan portfolios. What if Germany's big commercial banks could turn their loan books into CLOs and sell them to bond and commercial paper investors? Well now they can. German banks will issue Dm20 billion in asset-backed securities this year. As Euan Hagger reports, the market should get much bigger.

Selling Europe to the US

Euromoney September 1998

Who's best at it? And which houses in the next few years will challenge those at the top? It means covering sectors not countries, and convincing 40 big fund managers that you have better information. Easy. Antony Currie reports.

Everybody wants to be in retail

Euromoney September 1998

Poorly served under the communists, ignored in the nineties' frenzy of corporate activity, he's suddenly being courted by bankers across central and eastern Europe. Hail the consumer. James Rutter on the rise of the retail client.

Romania's elusive potential

Euromoney September 1998

From time to time Romania's political leadership launches a plan for reform. Foreign bankers and investors respond with a wave of enthusiasm about the country. Then things go awry. This year, following the latest reform plan, foreign banks are starting to expand outside the capital and are looking for privatization mandates. Will things be different this time? James Rutter finds out.

Kazakhs with their backs to the wall

Euromoney September 1998

The crises, first in east Asia, then on the doorstep in Russia, have side-swiped Central Asia but the downturn is not without hope. Kazakhstan is pressing on with reforms despite the slide in commodity prices, and opening up to foreign banks. Uzbekistan may be stuck in a time warp, but Azerbaijan shows new signs of offering value to foreign banks and investors. By Suzanne Miller.

Following in Russia's footsteps?

Euromoney September 1998

Ukraine has been pushed to the brink by Russia's financial turmoil and the government's resistance to reform. The treasury bill market needs restructuring or there will be default, equity trading has ground to a standstill, and foreign investors are counting the days until they can get their money out of the country. Theodore Kim reports.

Can the local banks hold on?

Euromoney September 1998

When their country was isolated by sanctions, South African banks had it easy. Now foreign competitors are eating away at their share of the most profitable business. Sam Swiss reports.

Keeping out of trouble

Euromoney September 1998

Singapore has fared better than its neighbours since the onset of the Asian crisis. But its financial authorities recognize that the situation could worsen. Measures to support corporations have been introduced and there has been an intensification of efforts to make the island a major financial centre, including market liberalization and an encouragement of banking consolidation. Gill Baker reports.

Putting out green shoots

Euromoney September 1998

They remain small and vulnerable to outside shocks, but the Middle East's stock markets have grown substantially over the past few years and, as Alex Mathias reports, are attracting a broader range of investors. Research by Luciano. Mondellini

Foreigners find it a struggle

Euromoney September 1998

Foreign banks are trying to sell investment-banking services in Croatia but so far with limited success. Delays in state sell-offs and corporate restructuring aren't helping. By Charles Olivier.

Getting ready for a shake-up

Euromoney September 1998

Slovenian banks are among the most protected in Europe. But a new banking law and reforms linked to the country's accession to the EU will shake them up. Charles Olivier reports.

A question of ownership

Euromoney September 1998

World stock and futures exchanges are in a turmoil of change and uncertainty. Fusion and cross-border linkages are in the air. Regulation to take account of this rapid change lags far behind, and stateless, borderless trading facilities may soon make it impossible. Remember, the only reason for an exchange to exist is to reduce transaction costs, argues Ruben Lee. Any new step that doesn't will end in tears.

Finance Minister and Central Banker of the Year

The return of Poland's middle-distance champion

Euromoney September 1998

Long, long ago, when half the world was ruled by men who still believed in state control of the economy, Poland took the gamble of letting the market decide the price of goods. That dose of shock therapy in 1989 became a model for eastern Europe. The man who imposed it became one of the region's leading economic thinkers. Now he is back at the helm of the Polish economy. James Rutter talks to Leszek Balcerowicz about history, movies and the trials of coalition government.

Gustavo Franco's bold use of power

Euromoney September 1998

Brazil long needed a heavyweight in the central bank chair and now it's got one. Gustavo Franco earned his spurs in last October's Asian meltdown. His policy regime, especially the use of capital controls, is being studied around the world. Brian Caplen reports.

Polls

Asian broker survey: The year of retrenchment

Euromoney September 1998

Profits are down, salaries are being sliced, portfolios are moving into cash, buyers are getting choosy about the brokers they use. Is it all doom and gloom? Not if you're smart. Markets that were overbroked are losing the dross: that means new opportunities for firms with good counterparty risk. And research is getting better as brokers fight to sell their services to investors. Steven Irvine sketches in the background to the Euromoney/Global Investor 10th annual Asian broker survey.

Country risk: How the mighty are falling

Euromoney September 1998

It's a measure of the turmoil in world markets that not a single bank was at first prepared to supply the forfaiting rates used by Euromoney in its calculation of these country-risk rankings. So fast were things changing that even these usually stable indicators became too volatile. Banks supplied them on request on a day-by-day basis to clients an indication of how difficult trade finance, the lubricant of the real economy, was becoming.

Economic projections

Euromoney September 1998

Latin America 100: The region's biggest banks

Euromoney September 1998

Brazilian banks continue to dominate our annual ranking of Latin America's biggest banks. But some smaller institutions top the ranking by capital, assets and profit growth, while Banespa has by far the highest return on equity. Data for the Latin 100 is supplied by Fitch IBCA.

Arab 100 1998: Waiting for the after-shock

Euromoney September 1998

Banks in the Middle East and North Africa generally performed well in 1997 despite hits in the second half from falling oil prices and Asian economic turmoil. Even where oil economies have successfully diversified, though, 1998 looks like being a tougher prospect. Banks in the region will therefore need to look harder at consolidation and cost-cutting. Andrew Beikos and Anthony Christofides report.

Editorial

Time to face facts

Euromoney September 1998

Herbie heads for the hills

Euromoney September 1998

Front end

Once bitten, twice optimistic

Euromoney September 1998

That's enough crises

Euromoney September 1998

Take me to your leader

Euromoney September 1998

Alfa plus, or minus?

Euromoney September 1998

Everyone's a winner...

Euromoney September 1998

Summertime news

Euromoney September 1998

Czechs go electronic

Euromoney September 1998

Rebuilding pyramids, Russian style

Euromoney September 1998

Lord Rothermere

Euromoney September 1998

Market monitor

Emerging markets

People

Deal insider

Against the tide

Germany: look beyond the politics

Euromoney September 1998

Financial lawyer

The discreet charm of the common-law trustee

Euromoney September 1998

Savvy sovereign issuers are rethinking the use of trustees. By Christopher Stoakes

The Moorgate saga

Riding into the sunset

Euromoney September 1998

Last National Bank of Boot Hill, Moorgate, London EC2


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