Euromoney September 1999
Credit and swap spreads have already risen in anticipation of the world's financial markets clamming shut this December. Borrowers and bankers talk nervously about the disappearance of liquidity and short-term funding in the run-up to year 2000. Central banks are on standby. So are some traders who hope to take advantage of illiquidity and mispricing. The frustration for many is that it is their own contingency plans, not their computers, that threaten chaos. But no-one knows how fierce the full millennium effect will be. Marcus Walker reports
Euromoney September 1999
When the ministry of finance regulated banks in Japan
the watchdog turned a blind eye to foreign banks doing things domestic ones couldn't. Not that there was anything illegal in the lucrative business of creating structured deals for firms intent on disguising losses. The new regulator - the FSA - takes a different
view and has imposed an exemplary clampdown on Credit Suisse. There's apparently a limit on the number of times something legal can be done if it's deemed against the public interest. The bankers are bemused by the vagueness of it all and so is our reporter Steven Irvine.
Euromoney September 1999
Eisuke Sakikabara, alias Mr Yen, retired last month as
Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs. A
forthright bureaucrat who kept the market on its toes with his timely comments, his career path was not typical of MoF officials and included a period in academia. A fluent English-speaker, he talked to Steven Irvine shortly after he stepped down. The only thing he wouldn't discuss was the way the yen was heading - something of a paradox given that the currency was formerly his favourite subject.
Euromoney September 1999
A handful of US congressmen have the IMF and World
Bank at their mercy. When it comes to fresh capital or even the subject of US withdrawal, these are the guys who have the casting vote, with a mind to their own re-election. Some, like congressman Sonny Callahan, chairman of the House foreign operations committee,
are more supportive than others, who'd prefer the IMF to be shut down and the third world left to market forces. The US Treasury and others with a less parochial view have to tread tortuous paths through Senate and House committees to push through the administration's foreign policy. The multilateral institutions have hung back from lobbying on Capitol Hill, but one day it could be a matter of survival. Brian Caplen reports.
Euromoney September 1999
James Wolfensohn is about to reach a milestone. His
five-year term at the helm of the World Bank is coming to an end. US president Bill Clinton will shortly decide whether to reappoint him. James Smalhout examines the record.
Euromoney September 1999
World Bank president James Wolfensohn believes the
Bank is becoming a more caring place, closer to the client it's trying to serve. One advanced management course includes a taste of poverty: living a week in a slum or village. Social aspects must match financial and macro concerns, he tells James Smalhout
Euromoney September 1999
World Bank guarantees are a new way to help crisis-hit
countries back into the private capital markets. But the Bank still wants to lend money. James Smalhout reports
Euromoney September 1999
The great and the good have come up with a seven-point plan to stave off financial crises and benefit the developing world. Are they building castles in the air or laying the basis of a new financial architecture? James Smalhout reports
Euromoney September 1999
Plummeting oil prices, turmoil in world markets and natural disasters: José Angel Gurría's first months as Mexico's finance secretary were a baptism of fire. But his legendary powers of persuasion enabled him to make vital budget cuts to keep Mexico on track. By Brian Caplen
Euromoney September 1999
It's huge, it's teeming with wild creatures, and it's fragile. In 1994 Deutsche Bank began to build an investment bank. In 1998 it restructured itself around corporate and investment banking. In 1999 it totally absorbed Bankers Trust. The result is a behemoth that relies heavily on global securities markets and the charisma of one man. Is this a safe vehicle for the next millennium? David Shirreff reports
Euromoney September 1999
The emerging markets are bouncing back - at least some of them are. While they do, the market is holding its breath as crisis-hit countries implement fiscal and monetary reforms. And while economists believe growth rates will improve, they are also resigned to sovereign defaults on foreign debt. Commentary by Rebecca Cicolecchia, research by Alexa Marx.
Euromoney September 1999
The 17 superchefs of the European Central Bank who sit on its governing council have 17 ideas about how to set rates, and how transparent the process should be. From the orthodox toughness of Duisenberg and Issing to the softness on the Nordic and southern fringes. Here are the two Germans, two Frenchmen, two Dutchmen, two Finns, two Spaniards, two Italians, the Austrian, Irishman, Portuguese, Belgian and Luxembourgois who rule euroland. By David Lanchner
Euromoney September 1999
Euromoney September 1999
A consolidation wave has broken over the Arab banks. In Bahrain, Gulf International Bank and Saudi International have created a new giant. In Saudi Arabia, Saudi American Bank and United Saudi Bank merged. Years of low oil prices and weak economies are the spur, though banks are still making profits. Commentary by Andrew Beikos and Elena Antoniou
Euromoney September 1999
The credibility of the UAE's stock market continues to be affected by the lack of a settlement, clearing and custody system - leaving it highly unregulated, devoid of transparency and subject to manipulation. But, Nigel Dudley reports, a regulatory system now seems on the way
Euromoney September 1999
In the past six months international investors have
differentiated central and eastern European countries they once grouped together. Economic performance and market development have varied widely, partly reflecting how badly each country was hit by the Russian crisis. The gap between the richest and poorest is growing, and there is increasing polarization between the first wave of applicants to the EU (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic,
Estonia, Slovenia), the second (Bulgaria, Romania, Slovak Republic, Lithuania, Latvia), and the former Soviet republics. Rebecca Bream reports on Poland, a leader in attracting foreign interest.
Euromoney September 1999
Croatia has too many banks and most of them are poorly
run. Bad debts are on the rise. Related lending has been
widespread. The government has taken some banks under its wing and hopes to rehabilitate and privatize them. Yet fundamental reform of the sector is coming too slowly and in insufficient doses. Alex Mathias reports.
Euromoney September 1999
Hyperinflation, a stalled privatization process, a lack of raw materials and a national currency near-impossible to convert have understandably encouraged the view among foreign investors that Belarus is an economic basket-case. But, as Theodore Kim reports, for the adventurous it's one of the cheapest places in the world to do business and it does have an industrial infrastructure so massive that it earned a reputation as the assembly plant of the Soviet Union
Euromoney September 1999
Last year's Russian crisis had one unexpected spin-off. For the first time investors started to differentiate between Russian risk and that of Kazakhstan. It was good news for Kazakhstan as Ted Kim reports.
Euromoney September 1999
Last month an earthquake brought Turkey's economy to a temporary standstill. It was already in the throes of a recession. Now it's time to rebuild, take advantage of extra sympathy from the IMF and international capital markets, and perhaps revitalize and reform the country in a way that wasn't politically possible before August 17. Metin Munir reports.
Euromoney September 1999
Elections have a nasty habit of destabilizing Latin America's fragile financial markets. The latest election-inspired jolt came in July when Eduardo Duhalde, Peronist party candidate for Argentina's presidency, suggested that the country might not need to pay back all its debts. The impact was felt throughout Latin America. Spreads on bonds widened, stock markets fell and currencies weakened. While some Latin issuers have taken advantage of brief windows of opportunity to sell bonds and equities this year, many are struggling to raise finance, while much of the region heads into economic downturn. Michael Peterson reports
Euromoney September 1999
All you need to make good money in Brazil is a banking licence, a few retail outlets and faith that your biggest customer will keep up payments. You don't need to worry too much about credit analysis, operating efficiency or branding. Risk-management skills may help you make even more money, but if you don't have them, relax, you should still come out ahead. Michael Peterson reports
Euromoney September 1999
The Asian crisis delivered a devastating blow to the
region's sprawling conglomerates. For years they diversified and grew rapidly, feeding on a rich diet of debt, much of it in foreign currencies. Then suddenly their markets collapsed and their debt service costs soared. But the bad times are ending and after drastic restructuring the best companies are on the move again.
Alex Mathias reports.
Euromoney September 1999
As Daewoo, once symbolic of the strength of new Korea, is forced into dismemberment because of crippling debt, the government hopes the demise of the second largest of Korea's chaebols will spur others to restructure to avoid a similar fate. However, there is a worry that economic recovery has taken some of the pressure off chaebol chiefs. Steven Irvine reports
Euromoney September 1999
Ireland has transformed its economy in recent years, luring multinational companies by offering low taxes and well-educated labour. Its participation in European economic and monetary union has also been an attraction. The economy has boomed. Ireland is running budget surpluses and paying down its debt out of privatization proceeds. But being a small nation in euroland also brings difficulties, like wholly inappropriate interest rates. The Irish economic miracle could be heading for disaster -- extraordinary rates of growth could well lead on to rampant inflation. Nick Kochan reports
Euromoney September 1999
After eight years of campaigning, Germany's private-sector banks finally won a judgment in Brussels against
WestLB's contentious capital-raising scheme, striking a blow at the financing privileges of state-owned banks. But WestLB chairman Friedel Neuber barely missed a beat: in less than a month he had demonstrated his political shareholders' loyalty by arranging yet another capital increase. Cowed by an angry government, the private banks dare not take the challenge to its logical conclusion. They fear losing more than they would gain, says Laura Covill.
Euromoney September 1999
Rolf Breuer, speaker of Deutsche Bank, defends the
purchase of Bankers Trust
Euromoney September 1999
When Armínio Fraga quit his job at Soros Fund Management to become Brazil's central banker he was dubbed a "poacher turned gamekeeper". But he is no stranger to the public sector. With stability restored he is now modernizing Brazil's finance sector. Brian Caplen reports