September 2000
| Euromoney September 2000 Bankers and their regulators converging on Prague for the IMF/World Bank meetings this month should be nervous about the vulnerability of the world financial system to attack - not by aliens, hackers or international terrorists but by the shortcomings of thousands of interdependent institutions. Highly correlated and linked financial markets mean contagion can spread in seconds. Short of rebuilding national barriers, like electronic iron curtains, there's no way to isolate ourselves from contamination. The reforming countries of central and eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are a weak link. They need more help and example from the west. Bringing in foreign strategic investors isn't a panacea, as the following pages show. - Slovenia's cure for xenophobia
A fear of foreign influence and a desire to escape the social costs of consolidation have slowed bank reform in Slovenia, but with likely EU membership looming change cannot be put off much longer. Christina White reports - Grand masters of opacity
For a major Czech bank, Investicni a Postovni Banka was deeply untransparent. Bank analysts, auditors and central bankers tried in vain to map the labyrinth controlled by vice-chairman Libor Prochazka. They didn’t much like the bank or its emphatically non-strategic partner Nomura. So, when catastrophe hit IPB in June, the government stepped in heavily and maybe did the wrong thing, for the right reason – or vice versa. Was this the best way for an EU candidate to reform its financial sector? David Shirreff reports - Foreigners buy up Poland’s banks
Poland suffered a dramatic bank collapse earlier this year and non-performing loans are building up on the balance sheets of many survivors. But there’s little need to panic. Poland has sold its banking system to foreign entrants attracted by the country’s growth potential. Lots of Poles don’t like what has happened. But it may be the model for the rest of the region. Ronan Lyons reports - One last local champion
The last of Poland's large commercial banks to be privatized could prove to be the most troublesome. - More questions than answers?
A run on Romania’s biggest bank was stopped in its tracks. The episode highlights nervousness in the system as banks are being readied for sale. Some on the inside say the situation’s not so bad as it looks and that the supervisors are getting tougher. But foreigners are still asking a host of questions, as Erik D’Amato reports. - Difficult decisions in debt
The increasing pace of developments in both the syndicated loan and the debt capital markets
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Euromoney September 2000
The collapse of the Sogo department store, the largest bankruptcy of a non-financial corporation yet seen in Japan, is significant in two important ways. It shows the fragility of economic recovery. Persistently slow growth may leave many more Japanese companies at risk and the country’s banks may suffer more bad debts. Second, it shows the old conservative consensus breaking down. Shinsei Bank, the old LTCB under new American ownership, refused to play along with a bank-led bail-out. And when politicians attempted a public rescue, an angry populace shouted it down. Painful corporate restructuring is at hand, reports Kevin Rafferty
Euromoney September 2000
For years the secretive Paris Club of sovereign creditors has ruled over debt workouts without comment or criticism. It dictated terms to the private sector and resisted, where possible, the writing off of debts to poorer nations. But that was in the days when official flows were the majority and private debt was in the hands of the banks. Now bondholders are outraged that the Paris Club is refusing to adapt its approach to the new economic environment, one in which private finance calls the shots. With the Paris Club refusing to budge on any of the major issues, the stage is set for a protracted battle. Brian Caplen reports
Euromoney September 2000
In the heartland of Gotham and the Bay Area of San Francisco, dwarfed by the high-rise headquarters of those they seek to challenge, lurk a select few individuals waiting to strike. These men are behind the mutant companies seeking to change the dynamics of equity capital-raising forever. They are much smaller than their prey, but less weighed down by legacy systems. The time has come for the internet-based new issue houses to show what they can do, reports Antony Currie
Euromoney September 2000
In his first months as president Vladimir Putin has been gathering together the threads of power. Oligarchs have been curbed, regional governors put in their place and former KGB colleagues given influential positions. How Putin will use his authority remains uncertain. He seems intent on reforming the tax code and the customs administration and is committed to helping small and medium-size enterprises. But a start has barely been made on economic liberalization and the reduction of state intervention. Ben Aris reports
Euromoney September 2000
Conversation in Kazkakhstan in recent months has centred on one topic: oil. What appears to be a major new find has excited locals, multinationals operating in the energy sector and buyers of an oversubscribed sovereign Eurobond. The prospect of this impoverished country, where the average wage is barely $100 a month, becoming the next Kuwait has also enabled the nation teasingly to play prospective bride to both the West and Russia. Ted Kim reports
Euromoney September 2000
Grigory Marchenko, Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan
Euromoney September 2000
By most economic and development measures, China would seem to have taken a firm lead over India in the great race between these two Asian contenders to become regional and global economic superpowers. Yet India, despite its slower economic growth, its poorer yet faster-increasing population and its confused politics, now has thriving new-economy sectors.
Euromoney September 2000
Information technology is by far India’s most dynamic sector but its success comes despite rather than because of government initiative. The BJP government has sloughed off the Congress Party’s socialism but is desperately slow at implementing its objectives of privatizing and increasing foreign investment. There’s some hope, though, in the initiatives being taken by state governments. Kala Rao reports
Euromoney September 2000
After the BJP-led coalition came to power last year, prime minister Vajpayee set up a new department of disinvestment and placed a young, telegenic lawyer, Arun Jaitley in charge.
Euromoney September 2000
Driving through the imposing gates of Film City on the outskirts of Hyderabad is like stepping into another world.
Euromoney September 2000
China’s economy continues its fast growth and its leaders appear firmly committed to continuing reform, as the country prepares for entry into WTO which may attract further substantial foreign direct investment. But the past 20 years of reform have been comparatively easy, having been imposed by an all-powerful central government on a closed economy. Now China must begin to compete globally and to cope with political tension at home arising from the uneven distribution of the benefits of reform. Phillip Moore reports
Euromoney September 2000
Membership of the World Trade Organization has taken China 14 years of campaigning. It's almost there.
Euromoney September 2000
As Asia's markets emerge battered and bruised from three years of crisis and recovery, the region’s shell-shocked bankers and issuers are starting to pick up the pieces and look
towards a brighter future. Bond and loan markets are showing signs of tentative recovery, equity markets are alternating between bewilderment and elation, and the samurai bond market remains intent on defying conventional economics.
Gill Baker reports
Euromoney September 2000
Asia’s equity markets have seen their fair share of triumphs and disasters in the past 12 months, with technology stocks still baffling market watchers in some markets and seducing them in others.
Euromoney September 2000
Euromoney September 2000
At some point the government plans to privatize the Hong Kong Airports Authority, and is expected to give it more attention once it has sold off the Mass Transit Railway Corporation (MTRC).
Euromoney September 2000
Taiwan avoided the excesses of Asian equity market euphoria last year and has escaped the worst of the stock market corrections in 2000. Some imaginative plays have helped it to the top of the Asian primary equity market this year. But even now concerns about a slowing economy, political uncertainty and a fragile banking system have many analysts believing the market has peaked for Taiwan issuers. Gill Baker reports
Euromoney September 2000
After the fanfare of the meeting between chairman Kim Jong-Il and president Kim Dae-Jung in Pyongyang in mid-year, moves toward a closer relationship have been slow. North Korea’s Tokyo-based unofficial spokesman, Kim Myong-Chol, has predicted peaceful reunification of Korea within five years. It might happen. But the road to unity will be longer and harder than was the path to German unification, finds Kevin Rafferty
Euromoney September 2000
Two years ago the Korean banking sector was in crisis. Foreign banks were nervous of making acquisitions. Today, although total banking-sector losses are still high, a core of mid-sized profitable banks has emerged. None, though, is large enough to prosper in the long term and the race is on to find complementary partners in an increasingly competitive market. Simon Brady reports
Euromoney September 2000
Washington wags used to quip that former IMF managing director Michel Camdessus wanted to be “the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral”. They had a point. Camdessus put the Fund on an ambitious course to be many things to many people during his 13-year tenure. That ended in February and today his successor Horst Köhler is getting back to core principles. He says he wants a leaner, meaner IMF. Now he has to deliver. James Smalhout reports
Euromoney September 2000
The great triumph of last year’s IMF/World Bank meeting was the unveiling of an agreement on debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries. But now that the promises are coming due, the international financial institutions are claiming poverty. This is special pleading - they have more than enough resources to cover the entire $45 billion multilateral share of the debt. The familiar cycle of debt and default will repeat itself, Adam Lerrick argues, unless the reform required of borrowing nations is matched by reform in the agencies themselves.
Euromoney September 2000
Financial talent is hard to come by these days, as any headhunter will confirm. And it can be even more difficult to keep. Case in point: Ricardo Hausmann, until recently the Inter-American Development Bank’s chief economist. Hausmann joins the Harvard faculty this month. But don’t expect him to be saying many good-byes. The international financial community seems bound to hear quite a bit more from this dynamic player. Hausmann shared some of his characteristic all-or-nothing views with Euromoney’s James Smalhout as he was packing his bags for Cambridge
Euromoney September 2000
With broken china still littering the office of the World Bank’s chief economist, Nicolas Stern finally arrived this July to start picking up the pieces. Stern, a mild-mannered man with degrees from Oxford and Cambridge, comes to Washington after six years as chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. His predecessor, the celebrated and unconventional Joseph Stiglitz, raised an unprecedented ruckus during his brief but stormy tenure in the job. His final controversy was the manner of Stern’s appointment to succeed him. So what is Stern’s agenda now, asks James Smalhout
Euromoney September 2000
Other central bank governors may lead a sedate life, contemplating the economy through half open eyes and jumping into action once or twice a year to notch the prime rate up or down by 25 basis points before they go back to watching the fiscal grass grow. Not Turkey’s Gazi Ercel. Metin Munir reports
Euromoney September 2000
Protests against her austerity package and calls for her resignation have failed to stop Brigita Schmögnerovà from doing the most exciting job she has ever had. By Jonathan Brown
Euromoney September 2000
It has been a busy year for presidential and parliamentary elections - and coup attempts. Throw in worker unrest (Peru, Ecuador, Ghana), violent separatism in Indonesia and looming emerging market elections and it would be wise to expect big changes in Euromoney’s first Country Risk ranking in 2001. Keri Geiger reports
Euromoney September 2000
For decades America ran huge budget deficits, only balancing the books in the last two years of the most astonishing economic boom on record. Now the two presidential candidates are rubbing their hands at the prospect of spending huge projected surpluses. They should be planning to meet the country’s real long-term financial challenges, rather than frittering the bounty away in popular tax cuts and spending. The age of sound economic leadership in the US may be about to come to an end. Antony Currie reports
Euromoney September 2000
As delegates file into this year’s World Bank/IMF meetings in Prague, the mood with regard to Latin America will be much more positive than in previous years. In 1998, Brazil was about to devalue, and panic was in the air. In September 1999, Ecuador became the first country ever to default on its Brady bonds, right in the middle of the annual meetings. Come 2000, and Ecuador has successfully restructured its debt, Mexico has had its first ever truly democratic election, ending more than 70 years of one-party rule in the process, and the Brazilian success story continues. Moody’s has upgraded Mexico to investment-grade status, and upgrades from Standard & Poor’s in both Mexico and Brazil are seen as inevitable. But challenges remain, Felix Salmon reports
Euromoney September 2000
The policy team of new Mexican president Vicente Fox has thought of everything. An impressive set of reforms covering the central bank, capital markets, the fiscal deficit, the energy sector and judiciary are all laid out ready. But can they be got through congress and made to work free from interference and corruption? Mexico is facing one of the biggest make or break periods in its history, writes Andrea Mandel-Campbell
Euromoney September 2000
Brazil looks set to meet fiscal targets agreed with the IMF and also seems to have inflation under control. But fiscal discipline has rested on increasing revenues rather than cutting expenditure, a course that will eventually restrain rather than promote growth. Reform of the tax and welfare system has barely been tackled and doubts persist about whether the government has enough political clout to see it through. A key gain is that the real economy is moving out of stagnation and into growth. Jonathan Wheatley reports
Euromoney September 2000
“Banks will need stronger cost discipline and controls to preserve margins”
Euromoney September 2000
When hurricane Mitch washed away the bridges, houses and crops of Honduras two years ago, many of its banks remained open and the staff at the finance ministry came into work. The authorities wanted to give a message: business as usual. The economy survived the devastation and recovery is now under way. But Honduras had to seek help from the multilaterals and the Paris Club. And that comes at a price, reports Nick Kochan
Euromoney September 2000
To date, most Arab countries have been insulated from outside pressure due to highly protected markets and huge oil reserves. But foreign competition is set to increase, especially for markets joining the World Trade Organization. The biggest banks in small countries will have to look outside their domestic markets for growth, either through acquisitions or alliances. Darren Stubing reports
Euromoney September 2000
Independent market regulation and a more relaxed approach to foreign investment are among new policies setting Arab states on the road to more dynamic markets. Not before time – accession to the World Trade Organization means the doors will have to open to foreign competition.
Euromoney September 2000
Remember how the internet was going to put securities firms out of business? It isn’t happening yet. Never before have investment banks made so much money from international capital markets. Volumes are rising across all categories. Underwriting fees are holding steady. And lucrative areas such as capital instruments, leveraged finance and securitization are bursting into life. Meanwhile, the equity markets have been a thrill-a-minute roller-coaster ride. But times aren’t as good for issuers and investors. As prices slide, bond and equity buyers alike have lost money. And issuers have had to jump through hoops to complete deals in crowded and volatile markets. Michael Peterson reports
Euromoney September 2000
High-yield bonds and loans are the business every bank wants to be in. But when bond markets turn nasty, junk debt is the first to suffer. Michael Peterson reports
Euromoney September 2000
Ever on the look-out for new and lucrative corners of the capital markets, many firms have identified what is often called capital management as a promising niche. At its most respectable, this business consists of advising banks and other companies on how to measure and manage the true economic risks of their activities. More often than not, however, it is about cold-calling bank treasurers and trying to sell them ideas for complex deals. Michael Peterson reports
Euromoney September 2000
Few banks better illustrate how the market has shifted from cashflow to synthetic CLOs than Deutsche Bank. The bank has been one of the biggest issuers of conventional CLOs, securitizing several billion euros-worth of corporate loans through its Core series of transactions in 1998 and 1999.
Euromoney September 2000
Some emerging markets have found the route to salvation, others are a whisker from damnation. By Michael Peterson
Euromoney September 2000
Equity capital market bankers are in a state of shock. It’s not simply that their market has seen record volumes of issuance this year. It is rather that the international equities market has gone through an entire lifecycle of change in less than 12 months. Michael Peterson reports
Euromoney September 2000
As the huge conglomerates that have long dominated Germany's economy transform themselves into sleek, focused businesses, a procession of corporate assets has come to the market.
Euromoney September 2000
The European securitization market used to be characterized by small, esoteric deals rather than the large standardized issues dominant in the US. Things are changing, but not towards the US model. Strategic securitizations to finance M&A, synthetic structures and deals to cover non-performing loans are fuelling investment banks’ enthusiasm for the market. Michael Peterson reports
Euromoney September 2000
Securitizing whole companies may be seen as the future of securitization in Europe, but so far only a few examples of this technique have taken place – and most of them have been in the UK pub industry. What is it about UK drinking dens that makes them so suitable for securitization?
Euromoney September 2000
The boom in yen-denominated bond issuance looks likely to be sustained. Foreign corporates are coming to the samurai market because they need yen funds, not because they intend to swap into dollars. There’s also strong demand for emerging market sovereign bonds from Japanese investors starved of yield by low domestic interest rates. Anja Helk reports
Euromoney September 2000
The economic boom of recent years has created a large class of wealthy individuals with money to spare. These high-net-worth individuals now form the most enticing target market for fund managers. Meanwhile the internet is democratizing financial services, in the process opening the markets up to a swathe of new private investors. The pile-it-high, sell-it-cheap supermarket philosophy which has already swept through the US is now set to engulf the rest of the world. What does this mean for the markets? Julian Marshall reports
Euromoney September 2000
Euromoney September 2000
War, famine, AIDS, corruption: the news out of Africa is always bad. Yet a handful of international banks and investors say that their African operations are hugely profitable and the rest of the world is overlooking wonderful opportunities. A number of sub-Saharan countries are throwing off their reputations for economic mismanagement, liberalizing their markets and promoting the private sector. Chris Cockerill reports
Euromoney September 2000
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Euromoney September 2000
Euromoney September 2000
Euromoney September 2000
Troubles continue at Scottish Widows, whose chief executive, Orie Dudley, is leaving after publicly criticizing his bosses.
Euromoney September 2000
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Euromoney September 2000
Chief executive, BondClick
Euromoney September 2000
Governor of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Euromoney September 2000
Former director, research & statistics division, US Federal Reserve
Euromoney September 2000
Head of investment banking, Barclays Capital Americas
Euromoney September 2000
Issuer: Dow Chemical
Amount: $300 million
Type of issue: Online domestic US
corporate bond auction
Launch date: August 15