September 2002
| Euromoney September 2002 Is the three-year equity bear market nearing its end? Or is it just the beginning of a financial and economic collapse that could shake the very core of the free-market capitalist system? - The new New Deal
For over a decade the triumph of the Anglo-American model of capitalism seemed assured: but no longer. So what happened to the Washington Consensus, and what new ideology might replace it?
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Euromoney September 2002
When investment bankers decide it is time to leave their industry, many take extended leave or choose to retire altogether. Milen Veltchev went straight to being Bulgaria’s finance minister.
Euromoney September 2002
Ian Macfarlane points to the dynamism of Australia’s economy, neglected by a market that went hi-tech mad, as part of the reason for his success at the Reserve Bank of Australia. But he’s made a few good calls of his own.
Euromoney September 2002
Despite robust GDP growth in 2001 in most Arab countries, their banks suffered falling earnings because of more domestic competition, weakness in global investment markets, tighter margins, and higher loan-loss provisions.
Euromoney September 2002
Brazilian banks continue to dominate indigenous banking in Latin America and continue to grow despite the economy’s woes.
Euromoney September 2002
Euromoney’s analysts have taken a measured view of such hyperbole as the “axis of evil” and resisted over-reacting to the situation in such regional crisis points as southern Africa. Latin America’s troubled economies suffer the severest downgrades.
Euromoney September 2002
Credit markets have contracted dramatically in recent months and all but the safest borrowers, which have benefited from a flight to quality, have had to pay a high price for funds. On the buy side investors want assurances that they will be protected from risk. The banks that have performed best in this year’s capital-raising poll are therefore those that have come furthest in developing complex products that can save money for borrowers and enable lenders to hedge effectively.
Euromoney September 2002
The US is unlikely to remain the world’s engine of growth. The trade deficit is at a record high, the federal budget has reverted to deficit, and talk of a fall in consumer spending, even deflation, is growing. The Bush administration appears hell-bent on war with Iraq. Congressional politics are acrimonious and gridlock is the likely outcome of upcoming mid-term elections.
Euromoney September 2002
US business leaders fear a heavy-handed legal and regulatory response to accounting scandals. The same fear was widespread in the 1930s. But the much hated laws and regulations laid down then set the foundations for a vibrant financial sector.
Euromoney September 2002
With asset prices beaten down, private-equity firms see big opportunities to buy now. But are they calling the bottom of the market too soon?
Euromoney September 2002
Dubai is busily preparing to host the annual IMF/World Bank meetings in 2003 which it hopes will showcase the city’s credentials as an international financial centre.
Euromoney September 2002
Saudi Arabia’s investment needs are so great that it looks as if
economic reform – however halting – will win out over statist, introverted policies.
Euromoney September 2002
The IMF has disbursed $13 billion to Tukey this year and claims to see widespread support for economic reform in the country. But the summer’s political crisis has raised the prospect of electoral success for the Islamists.
Euromoney September 2002
MarketAxess has risen to the top of online credit trading through a mix of luck and skill. Now TradeWeb has launched corporate bond trading too. The downturn has helped position them as the two biggest platforms. But they’re competing for a tiny share of overall corporate bond business.
Euromoney September 2002
Interdealer brokers Cantor Fitzgerald and Icap fought a bitter courtroom battle this year over staff poaching. Now the two are armed for conflict in electronic bond broking.
Euromoney September 2002
The affair is not over but investors’ passion for a new EU convergence story has cooled. They are beginning to price in the impact of delays to entry for leading candidates, the long run-in for others, and the unlikelihood of rapid single-currency status for any new members.
Euromoney September 2002
Russia is facing its first real economic test since the fall of the Soviet Union. The strong growth of the past two years is slowing down as the last of devaluation’s beneficial effects wear off.
Euromoney September 2002
The robber-baron days of the Yeltsin-era oligarchs might
be over but high-level power play is still a feature of Russia's economy, fuelled by a still underdeveloped legal system.
Euromoney September 2002
Kazakhstan led the world growth table in 2001 and credit rating agencies see it as a sound candidate for borrowing. Export credit agencies are not so confident, pointing in their ratings to paltry political reform and a nepotistic ruling elite.
Euromoney September 2002
Businessmen are joining Kazakhstan's democracy movement as independent economic activity hits a ceiling.
Euromoney September 2002
Kazakhstan has had more success than most former Soviet states in reforming its power sector. Electricity suppliers hope prices can be pushed higher but the abundance of oil and gas will limit rises.
Euromoney September 2002
To talk, as many people do, of common technological standards in the drive towards straight-through processing is hypothetical. In the purest sense, there is no such thing. The same can also be said of straight-through processing itself.
Euromoney September 2002
Latin America faces what one analyst calls the worst period in its economic history since the middle of the 19th century. The decade of reform appears to be ending with little having been achieved. Political crises abound. Much needed foreign capital is drying up. And those looking to the IMF for salvation are likely to be disappointed.
Euromoney September 2002
Will it be fourth time lucky for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential elections? If he wins, the result will not be welcomed on Wall Street. What are the repercussions for Brazil, already teetering on the brink?
Euromoney September 2002
September 11 awakened financial institutions to the inadequacies of their business continuity systems. Across the industry, much thinking has been done about how to implement such systems. But in the course of the past year, some firms have nodded off again.
Euromoney September 2002
In a region where private-equity flows are rapidly drying up, many investors regard Korea as a relatively lucrative safe haven. But even in Korea it’s an arduous task putting deals together and successful exits have been few and far between.
Euromoney September 2002
The Korean government’s sale of Seoul Bank to another domestic player has upset foreign bidders . But the sale is likely to prompt further consolidation.
Euromoney September 2002
China is a massive liberalizing market. Does this mean big opportunities for foreigners to make money? Up to a point perhaps – size of this order is difficult for outsiders to get a grip of and domestic institutions will in any case want the biggest share.
Euromoney September 2002
A minority of a minority – five holders of part of the 15% active capital of Icelandic mutual savings bank Spron – are crucial to the takeover bid being made by commercial bank Búnadarbanki.
Euromoney September 2002
Finnish telecom Sonera’s writing off of unpromising 3G licences has delighted its prospective partner, Sweden’s Telia. But the merger deal is not quite sealed and investigations continue.
Euromoney September 2002
South Africa’s big banks have first-world management, technology and systems but operate in an emerging market where growth prospects are poor and the future is uncertain. They’re seeking ways to grow without risking the bank.
Euromoney September 2002
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Euromoney September 2002
Euromoney September 2002
Euromoney September 2002
Euromoney September 2002
IMF/World Bank meeting
Euromoney September 2002
European integration
Euromoney September 2002
Equity exchanges
Euromoney September 2002
Debt markets
Euromoney September 2002
Hedge funds
Euromoney September 2002
Fund management
Euromoney September 2002
Russia
Euromoney September 2002
Latin America
Euromoney September 2002
South Africa
Euromoney September 2002
India
Euromoney September 2002
Asia
Euromoney September 2002
Issuer: Republic of LebanonAmount: $750 millionLaunched: August 2 2002Bookrunner: Morgan Stanley
Euromoney September 2002
Global bond strategist, Pimco
Euromoney September 2002
Head of EMEA debt markets, Merrill Lynch