September 2004
| Euromoney September 2004 Iraq and Argentina's debt problems will dominate this month's IMF/World Bank meetings, with the size of their liabilities casting doubt on the international financial system's ability to cope. - Seeking forgiveness of Saddam-era debt
Argentina has over half a million creditors, while Iraq has comparatively few. But dealing with $100 billion of Iraq's debt has given everyone from the IMF to the Paris Club a tough problem to resolve. The US government will urge generosity but a happy solution for all interested parties is next to impossible. - Argentina's creditors brace for lowball offer
Argentina is facing an invidious situation. It has strong motives to resolve the default on its foreign debt but its offer could be strangled at birth. Many creditors seem unwilling to accept it. The proposed bond exchange, the world's largest ever, is just the beginning of the road back to international acceptance.
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Euromoney September 2004
Does present poor hedge fund performance cast doubt on the broad validity of the sector or have new investors that flooded into hedge funds recently fallen for myths about their success and failed to see performance in a historical context? What is clear is that attempts to match capacity to demand have at least temporarily undermined some hedge fund strategies.
Euromoney September 2004
Hedge funds are suddenly receiving high allocations in IPOs even though their participation can sometimes reduce issuers' proceeds. Are they suitable buyers or are investment banks favouring the clients which pay them the most?
Euromoney September 2004
New tools such as credit default swaps and index products have changed the ground rules of hedge fund activity in emerging markets. They are paying off now but will sophisticated pricing and technology be able to cope with the next emerging-market debt crisis?
Euromoney September 2004
Iran's economic liberalization programme has shown impressive results. But the victory of conservative forces in the latest elections threatens further progress. Meanwhile the country's banks are incapable of funding its corporations, which are turning instead to the capital markets.
Euromoney September 2004
The appointment of former deputy central bank governor Jammaz Al-Suhaimi as chairman of Saudi Arabia's Capital Markets Authority looks set to accelerate the liberalization and broadening of the kingdom's financial markets.
Euromoney September 2004
The Shariah-compliant debt market has grown rapidly, with interest from issuers and investors outside as well as inside the Muslim world. The next development is likely to be more corporate issues using Islamic structures.
Euromoney September 2004
Banks in Arab countries enjoyed much better results in 2003, especially during the second half. In 2002 earnings fell on the back of weakness in global investment markets, tight margins, and higher provisions. Net profit bounced back in 2003, rising by over 15% for the top 100 Arab banks.
Euromoney September 2004
A well-executed privatization programme, carefully directed investment in education, valuable trade agreements and astute management of debt and inflation have underscored the growing health of the Jordanian economy, symbolized by its graduation from IMF programmes.
Euromoney September 2004
Real money investors such as mutual funds, as well as credit hedge funds, prop traders and other specialist investors, are finally treating credit risk as an asset class to be managed like any other. They bring new liquidity to the markets in default swaps and credit indices that have made this possible.
Euromoney September 2004
Lack of volatility and narrow spreads have driven investors to seek out yield in the structured credit market. New products built on transparent, non-proprietary credit derivative indices have fed this demand but participants worry that not all investors have a clear idea of what they are getting into.
Euromoney September 2004
In the lull between the fundamentals of European companies improving and their expanding or acquiring rivals, there's been a dearth of new credit issuance. Hence the interest investors have taken in liability management deals. Investors claim to see good returns from these, but this is by no means guaranteed.
Euromoney September 2004
The mini bank crisis Russians faced in the summer has underscored the urgent need for bank sector reform and the creation of a system that can respond to the credit needs of businesses and individuals.
Euromoney September 2004
Russia's economy is roaring up the growth curve but dependence on oil revenues, insufficient diversification into other activities and a growing gap between the well-off and the poor give cause for concern.
Euromoney September 2004
Having been heavily overweight on Russia last year, many emerging-market equity investors are now scaling back their positions. Some investors are making a fundamental reassessment of Russian equity risk.
Euromoney September 2004
Oil and gas still lord it over all other sectors of the Russian economy but beyond the energy markets other businesses are making their mark on the international stage. Euromoney identifies some of the rising stars.
Euromoney September 2004
The EU's decision in December on Turkey's bid for membership will have dramatic effects on the country's economic development. But even if the formal accession process begins, major reforms will still have to be undertaken.
Euromoney September 2004
The prospect of next month's European Commission decision on EU membership for Romania has concentrated the minds of the country's politicians and bankers. A flurry of reforms have been accompanied by an acceleration of privatization to get the country into shape for a 2007 accession target.
Euromoney September 2004
CEE private equity, after a tough period that saw many funds go out of business, is enjoying a surge in activity, thanks to access to leveraged finance. Some funds are making big returns. Others, however, are still struggling.
Euromoney September 2004
The youthful managers of Kazakhstan's financial sector are determined that oil and minerals wealth will be used to create a strong mixed economy. A well-regulated banking system and controls on the inflationary effects of oil earnings have been established but diversification and financial markets development still face significant hurdles.
Euromoney September 2004
New approaches to instilling high standards have fed into this year's Euromoney corporate governance survey. Initiatives include activist fund managers taking on mandates to advise other investment groups and the incorporation of governance criteria into bond ratings.
Euromoney September 2004
Slovakia boasts the fastest growth rate in central and eastern Europe as it turns from regional laggard to leader. It has boosted growth, controlled government spending and attracted FDI with a tax policy some of its larger neighbours dislike. They won't intimidate finance minister Ivan Miklos.
Euromoney September 2004
Is that spare $400 million giving you a headache? Do you already have the private jet, the yacht, art collection, international properties and a charitable foundation? Maybe you now need your own team of dedicated advisers to help you oversee your family's wealth. How about a family office?
Euromoney September 2004
Following a period of sustained economic growth, the Caribbean is faced with a new challenge. Recent developments in international legislation might reduce capital inflows and put more pressure on the region's financial sector.
Euromoney September 2004
Low interest rates and improvements in financial stability and management in large parts of Latin America are putting banks on the path to increased lending capacity as demand for credit increases.
Euromoney September 2004
In 20 months as governor, Alfonso Prat-Gay built a credible central bank from almost nothing, managed the money supply brilliantly, oversaw currency stability, kept rates low and even began whipping the banking sector into shape. For these achievements, he is Euromoney's central bank governor of the year. But he also strove for greater independence for the central bank. Now, on the eve of the country's crucial bond exchange, president Nestor Kirchner has chosen to dispense with Argentina's most internationally respected policymaker.
Euromoney September 2004
Through western eyes, China and India might seem locked in a struggle for economic supremacy. The truth is quite different. The economies are complementary more than being competitors with each other, and the implications will shape the global economy for decades to come.
Euromoney September 2004
No-one disputes that China's growth rate needed reining in. While investors worry over the possible consequences of a sharp slowdown, most economists believe that, contrary to global historical precedent, the Chinese authorities might have pulled off the trick of a relatively painless cool-down. But serious structural flaws in the economy remain and make China a perilous place to invest.
Euromoney September 2004
For years, Deutsche Bank's Asian equity business was little more than an also-ran. The bank had a reputation for aggressive tactics and profligate hiring but failed to build a credible business, to the amusement of rivals. But with new management hired to fix the problems, Deutsche seems to be getting it right.
Euromoney September 2004
Analysts are growing increasingly concerned about rising problem loans advanced to SMEs by Korean banks. The banks' track record inspires little confidence. They lent unwisely to the conglomerates in the late 1990s and then hit problems with consumer credit cards. Have the Korean banks learnt their lesson or is a third bad debt crisis looming?
Euromoney September 2004
Country risk index: The latest Euromoney country risk survey, which for the first time incorporates data on perceptions of corruption, reflects continuing upheaval in the Middle East and Africa that is only partly compensated for by a favourable global trade environment.
Euromoney September 2004
South Africa has built stable macroeconomic foundations since the overthrow of apartheid but its potential as a regional leader is still hampered by corporate rigidities, untapped talent reflected in high unemployment, an Aids epidemic and a failure to attract inward investment.
Euromoney September 2004
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Euromoney September 2004
Emilio Botín knew that launching a frontal assault on the UK banking market was never going to be a bed of roses. But the 70-year-old chairman of Grupo Santander, Spain's largest bank, and his team were knocked for six by the furore that was unleashed in response to their £8 billion-plus bid for Abbey, the sick man of British banking.
Euromoney September 2004
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Euromoney September 2004
MBNA Europe's delinked programme should help Europe's ABS issuers to respond to investor demand
Euromoney September 2004
Google's decision to use an auction for its IPO sprang from a desire to get what it regarded as a fair price, avoid post-issue upsets and offer fair investor access. Did it succeed in these goals and might it have done better had it shown more respect to its bankers?
Euromoney September 2004
Deflation is on the way, summoning up a long and dreary financial winter. But it should be preceded by a burst of autumn sunshine
Euromoney September 2004
Euromoney September 2004