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Banking's next big hits
As China gradually loosens its grip on its FX regime, an ostensibly overvalued RMB is expected to fall back in line with global currencies, presenting a range of opportunities for traders, ranging from USD/CNH spot positions and the options market, to punts on the CNY-CNH differential.
Published March 2015 euromoney.com
After the events of Black Thursday, the CEO of crest-fallen FXCM, the FX broker, discusses the shake-up in its business model, the future for retail flows, and lashes out at the institutional FX market structure.
Published February 2015 euromoney.com
Charles Dallara, the former Greek-debt negotiator on behalf of the private sector in 2012, calls for wide-ranging reforms in Athens’ bailout package and issues a stark warning to northern Europe, after a calamitous week of negotiations.
The SNB's removal of its currency floor with the euro and a rising greenback call into question the strength and wisdom of currency pegs elsewhere, especially in the Gulf and Hong Kong.
Published January 2015 euromoney.com
The Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar has, once again, come under scrutiny after the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) removal of its currency’s floor roiled currency markets globally.
The shock decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to discontinue its euro peg and impose a 0.75% rate on sight deposit accounts will inevitably wreak havoc on Swiss banks’ earnings, say analysts, citing the rising CHF-denominated cost base of global investment banks, which derive the bulk of their income in USD and EUR.
The SNB has been under sustained fire in its attempt to defend its euro peg in recent years, as ECB loosening and risk aversion increased safe-haven flows. Thursday's rate cuts and the shift in the long-defended policy regime have shocked markets and have far-reaching implications for the euro and eastern Europe.
US officials are waging a war to promote the leverage ratio as a binding constraint on banks’ capital frameworks, further imperilling strategic planning for cross-border lenders.
Euromoney January 2015
Haunted by the global crisis, policymakers from the US to the UK are erecting national barriers and waging a war against too-big-to-fail banking. Vice-chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Thomas Hoenig defends the drive toward balkanization.
From the Volcker Rule to the EU’s proposed ring-fencing, inconsistent rules on bank structures, both within the EU and between the US and Europe, are the latest threat to the global banking model.
Emerging market fixed-income and FX markets are poised for a third year of volatility thanks to a slowing China, strengthening dollar, lower oil prices, and the prospect of a US rate hike. The shortage of investable high yielders, as well as the declining creditworthiness of the likes of Russia and Venezuela, will also bedevil markets.
Weak global trade and increasing import substitution have signalled bad news for emerging-market FX in 2014, particularly in those countries that rely on a vibrant export sector to drive their economies. 2015 should provide some respite for manufacturers, but commodity exporters will remain in the line of fire.
Published December 2014 euromoney.com
Don’t believe the G20 hype. In interviews with Euromoney, the world’s top financial policymakers admit regulatory tensions are tight. What’s more, the collateral damage of the focus on too-big-to-fail, capital rules and bankruptcy resolution risk rolling back financial globalization. Is it time to change the terms of the discussion?
Euromoney December 2014
The latest results of a systemic risk index reveal elevated risks in Russia, Portugal and France but a generally marked improvement across the rest of Europe.
Published November 2014 euromoney.com
Analysts support the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) response to the collapse of the rouble, arguing it will shift market expectations and could stabilize the currency in the medium-term. In an interview with Euromoney before the move, a CBR official discusses the opportunities and challenges in the regime shift.
FX market veteran takes up new role developing digital technology and reducing business complexity across Deutsche Bank’s markets platform
A sin of omission: the agenda for the annual meeting in Washington DC this week fails to take sufficient account of the fears of emerging-market (EM) policymakers.
Published October 2014 euromoney.com
Buoyed by its Indian success, the World Bank’s private-sector arm the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has set its sights on further extending the offshore renminbi curve.
A lack of international monetary policy coordination and efforts to beef up the IMF to reflect the newfound clout of emerging markets (EMs) raises the risks of trade protectionism and market volatility, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan tells Euromoney.
Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan is battling inflation and crony capitalists to open a new chapter in the Asian superpower’s growth story. Rajan – Euromoney’s central bank governor of the year 2014 – reveals his blueprint for reforms and issues a stark warning about the cracks in the global economy.
Euromoney October 2014
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