Don’t believe the G20 hype
Saudi markets get chance to shine?
Emerging market fixed-income and FX markets are poised for a third year of volatility because of a slowing China, strengthening dollar, lower oil prices, the prospect of a US rate hike, and the shortage of investable high yielders, as well as the declining creditworthiness of the likes of Russia and Venezuela.
Euromoney January 2015
Weak global trade and increasing import substitution have signalled bad news for emerging-market FX in 2014, particularly in those countries that rely on a vibrant export sector to drive their economies. 2015 should provide some respite for manufacturers, but commodity exporters will remain in the line of fire.
Published December 2014 euromoney.com
Don’t believe the G20 hype. In interviews with Euromoney, the world’s top financial policymakers admit regulatory tensions are tight. What’s more, the collateral damage of the focus on too-big-to-fail, capital rules and bankruptcy resolution risk rolling back financial globalization. Is it time to change the terms of the discussion?
Euromoney December 2014
The latest results of a systemic risk index reveal elevated risks in Russia, Portugal and France but a generally marked improvement across the rest of Europe.
Published November 2014 euromoney.com
Analysts support the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) response to the collapse of the rouble, arguing it will shift market expectations and could stabilize the currency in the medium-term. In an interview with Euromoney before the move, a CBR official discusses the opportunities and challenges in the regime shift.
FX market veteran takes up new role developing digital technology and reducing business complexity across Deutsche Bank’s markets platform
A sin of omission: the agenda for the annual meeting in Washington DC this week fails to take sufficient account of the fears of emerging-market (EM) policymakers.
Published October 2014 euromoney.com
Buoyed by its Indian success, the World Bank’s private-sector arm the International Finance Corporation (IFC) has set its sights on further extending the offshore renminbi curve.
A lack of international monetary policy coordination and efforts to beef up the IMF to reflect the newfound clout of emerging markets (EMs) raises the risks of trade protectionism and market volatility, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan tells Euromoney.
Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan is battling inflation and crony capitalists to open a new chapter in the Asian superpower’s growth story. Rajan – Euromoney’s central bank governor of the year 2014 – reveals his blueprint for reforms and issues a stark warning about the cracks in the global economy.
Euromoney October 2014
In exclusive interviews, leaders of Indian finance reveal how banks, nursing wounds from the recent credit boom, should be set free from the shackles of state control, as reformists raise hopes of a new dawn for Indian capitalism. A jolt, not a tweak, to the financial system is desperately needed.
Euromoney September 2014
Even in a bullish scenario where a Rajan-Modi dream team unleashes reforms – from PSL to the bond market – in an economic super-cycle that sees public lenders recapitalized, foreign investment banks could still be chasing rainbows in India. It is an over-banked market, with dozens of fee-hungry institutions jockeying for business.
Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF. Rhetoric aside, the west dismisses emerging-market dissent over the broken financial architecture at its peril.
The proposed merger of CIMB, RHB Capital and Malaysia Building Society (MBSB) will transform the economics of the country’s banking and capital-markets business in the coming years and shake up south-east Asian banking in general.
The course of unrequited love never did run smooth and financial markets are only just taking stock of the threat to the banking and capital-market landscape in the event of a break-up of the UK in its current formation.
Published September 2014 euromoney.com
The Brazilian real has been rising in recent weeks on hopes opposition candidate Marina Silva will beat president Dilma Rousseff in a run-off election in October. With the Brazilian economy faltering and the election outcome still on a knife edge, the real’s outlook – and the country’s macro framework, more generally – remains unclear.
Analysts are divided over the outlook for the euro and the likely potency of the ECB latest monetary-easing measures, after Thursday’s meeting that saw the central bank cutting rates and announcing the October launch of an ABS purchasing programme. While the measures will buoy credit at the front-end, the jury is out on full-scale QE in the coming months.
China’s banking risks have tripled in one year amid a decline in market capitalization for the sector and a rise in debt issuance, as fears over the shadow-banking system grow, according to the latest projections from a systemic risk index, Euromoney can reveal.
Published July 2014 euromoney.com
FX scandal: the latest newsFix fines fuel technology gold rush$4.2 billion FX fines are just the beginningRegulators seek to restore FXs broken trust covenantPeer-to-peer FX catches on
Eurozone: Draghis oil trick
Sponsored by ING
Global economys end-of-year verdict: Try harder
Sponsored by VTB Capital
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