USD/CNY trading band will widen in 2013, says Deutsche Bank

By:
Published on:

Chinese authorities are likely to widen the trading band on the USD/CNY in 2013, as the country seeks to further internationalize its currency with a series of measures to increase the momentum towards the full liberalization of its capital account, according to Deutsche Bank.

Next year, the German bank expects a formal announcement on increasing the RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor quote to RMB270 billion from RMB70 billion, as well as new measures to broaden sources of offshore liquidity supply under capital accounts. Furthermore, Deutsche says it expects the appointment of RMB clearing banks in Taiwan, Singapore and possibly London.

The trading band on USD/CNY will probably increase from its current band of +/- 0.5% to +/-2%, says Deutsche, and as a result there should be higher volatilities in the CNY-CNH basis next year. In anticipation of this, offshore investors should use CNH forward contracts, rather than non-deliverable forwards, for downside in USD/CNY. That is because it anticipates USD/CNH spot is likely to fall further and faster than the fixings.

In terms of forecasting some of the key performance indicators in the offshore RMB market, Deutsche is forecasting the RMB to appreciate 2% to 3%, and cross-border trade settlement is likely to grow to about RMB4 trillion, or 15% of China’s global trade volume, with average daily trading volume to rise to as much as $3 billion.