Privatization: The road to wiping out the US deficit

A brief history of US infrastructure

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA was in a sombre mood as he delivered his administration’s 2010 budget. Speaking in the Grand Foyer of the White House on February 1, he intoned: "Our government is deeply in debt after what can only be described as a decade of profligacy." Outlining the myriad problems the government faced, he said the solution lay in doing "what families across America do: save where we can so that we can afford what we need".

He concluded: "We simply cannot continue to spend as if deficits don’t have consequences. In order to meet this challenge, I welcome any idea."

One idea that financiers are now openly discussing as the government’s only way out of the perennial budget crisis is the wholesale privatization of US infrastructure assets. And if a wholesale privatization programme can get under way, it could create one of the biggest new markets in the world, while simultaneously bringing US finances back in order. After all, what US families also do when they are in debt is to sell stuff.

Infrastructure privatization in the US has been slow to take off in comparison to continental Europe, the UK, Canada and Australia. The effects of this can be seen in the difference in quality of US infrastructure compared with other developed countries. The immaturity of the market can also be seen in the financial structures that exist in the US and those that are commonplace elsewhere. Public-private partnerships (called P3s in the US and PFI – the Private Finance Initiative – in the UK) have come into play in the US only in the past two or three years. "Europeans are 20 years ahead of us in terms of privately financed infrastructure spending," says Andrew Horrocks, a managing director at Moelis & Co investment bank in New York covering the transport and infrastructure sectors.

According to Horrocks, from 1950 to 1970 the US spent 3% of its GDP on infrastructure. From 1970 to the present day the figure fell to 2%. This has caused an immense backlog, with an estimated $1 trillion needed just to get existing infrastructure up to scratch. Luckily, there is a perfect mechanism for raising that money: the monetization of existing assets.

These assets are extremely valuable. According to the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2008 the total value of US government fixed assets (at a federal, state and local level) was $9.3 trillion. Of this $1.9 trillion is owned by the federal government, while $7.4 trillion is held at the state level.

If one assumes that the federal government will not be selling the navy or the municipalities their schools, there is still an immense amount of assets that can be sold. For instance, the value of all the highways and roads owned by states and municipalities is $2.4 trillion. There are $550 billion of sewerage assets at state and local levels along with a further $400 billion of water assets. Even at the federal level there is $42 billion-worth of amusement and recreation assets. And in the real estate sector, the federal, state and local governments own assets worth $1.09 trillion.

To put these numbers into the context of the budget deficit and the overall debt burden, in 2009 the US government spent $1.4 trillion more than it received in taxes and raised in debt. This year the February 2010 deficit alone is $221 billion and the figure since October 2009 is $650 billion.

These assets have not been monetized before because the US did not need to do so. Yet it has never faced the kind of budgetary pressures that it faces today. Secondly, the public, political and perception problems surrounding infrastructure asset sales have kept the issue away from discussion.

But conditions have changed. The situation that the US now finds itself in is similar to where the UK and Australia were 20 years ago. Public perception has changed, politicians are willing to think the once unthinkable and private-sector money is lining up looking for the long-term stable cashflows that privatized infrastructure can bring. All of the pieces are in place for the market to explode.

Tipping point

"This has been the promised land for so long," says Ben Heap, managing director of UBS’s infrastructure fund in New York, and one of the many Australians now working in the US infrastructure sector. "Is now the tipping point? At some stage we will look back and see that it is."

Senior members of the US political establishment are also betting that the time has come for the market to take off. "I expect to see a big increase in infrastructure assets for purchase by folks like us," says Emil Henry, the chief executive of Tiger Infrastructure Fund, a new vehicle set up with the backing of legendary hedge fund investor Julian Robertson. Henry was assistant secretary of the US Department of the Treasury from 2005 to 2007 and is extremely well connected in Republican circles. "If you look at the data, 40 out of 50 states are currently in record deficit," he says. "And the two levers to fund deficits are increases in taxes or increases in debt. But the environment is such that raising debt or taxes is extremely difficult right now. Therefore, many municipalities and states are looking at monetizing their assets."

At a state level, senior officials and politicians are fully aware of the budget problems they face. According to Kris Kolluri – who ran New Jersey’s Department of Transportation under governor Jon Corzine before being appointed the head of the New Jersey Schools Development Authority – the New Jersey Transportation trust fund faces bankruptcy in 18 months and the school system needs $25 billion over the next 10 years. "There are very few options left," says Kolluri, who now runs his own infrastructure and P3 consultancy. "So we will see a gravitation towards new P3 deals."