The truth about Asian investment banking
China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

Up to 40% of China’s $1.7 trillion LGFV loans are at high risk of default. What’s a panicking Beijing to do?

December 2009

Will the credit rally stick?


When everyone agrees everything’s alright, we’ve a classic sign of a bubble.


Talk to credit market participants about the rally of 2009 and many make tongue-in-cheek references to a certain kind of primate, who, had it had access to funds under management and a telephone, could have reaped rich rewards this year as well. The potent combination of severe market dislocation in 2008 and heavy doses of central bank liquidity administered in its wake has conspired to crush credit spreads and revive positive market sentiment. As the year draws to a close what’s perhaps more surprising is that more money hasn’t been taken off the table. One would typically expect...


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