June 2009

Foreign Exchange: Yen moves centre stage

Japanese currency becalmed despite bad news; Possible US move would prompt sell-off


Ostensibly, there appeared little excitement to whet the appetites of yen traders throughout May. The yen was locked in tight ranges against various other currencies, and, not surprisingly, implied volatility started to trend lower. One-month vol, which was being quoted at around 19% at the end of March, had eased off to below 14% near the end of May. Other currencies were clearly moving around to a greater extent. But even if the yen was becalmed there was enough news flow to suggest that activity could pick up.

At the time of writing, the yen had easily shrugged off a series of negative pieces of news. On May 18, the currency came...


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