China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

Up to 40% of China’s $1.7 trillion LGFV loans are at high risk of default. What’s a panicking Beijing to do?

The truth about Asian investment banking

May 2009

Loan market: Default rating's unintended consequences


Rating agency treatment of distressed buybacks will make it even harder to salvage value in the battered loan market.


Debt buybacks and exchanges are contentious propositions at the best of times. Present loan market trading levels make them very hard to resist for many heavily indebted entities. But rating agency treatment of these trades is having far-reaching consequences – not just for the corporates involved but for the loan market as a whole.

Critics are focusing on the treatment of distressed exchanges – or those from entities rated lower than single-B minus. The agencies treat a distressed exchange as a default, on the thesis...


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