The credit default swap market now seems to be facing a regulatory backlash so severe that the future viability of the industry as a whole is in question. The market’s frantic efforts to reduce notional outstandings might simply be too little too late, as its image as a hotbed of speculative trading and market manipulation becomes cemented in politicians’ minds. The compression initiatives now under way will certainly reduce the contracts outstanding by a significant amount: Isda has confirmed that volumes decreased from $62.2 trillion to $54.6 trillion in the first half of this year – before the recent events at Fannie, Freddie, Lehman and WaMu even took place. In normal times, a...
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