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Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Economic sentiment worsens by 11.5pts y/y in August.





Economic sentiment worsens by 11.5pts y/y in August. The index of economic sentiment dropped by 11.5pts y/y in August, the Statistical Office (SUSR) informed. All components of the index posted annual declines, which was least pronounced in the retail trade sector. In m/m terms, however, the sentiment index broke a clear downward trend and improved slightly by 0.6pts during the month. Positive developments were based on a substantial rise in confidence in the retail sector. It built on optimistic evaluations of the future business environment. In contrast, confidence in all other economic sectors dropped m/m in August with the exception of construction. The index for the construction sector remained completely flat m/m, reflecting possibly seasonal expected increase in employment as opposed to a registered decrease in demand for construction services. Industrial confidence was down by 1pts m/m for the month, not surprisingly on account of negative outlook for future output. Falling external demand on account of the financial crisis and the high oil prices should be expected to continue restraining industrial production growth over the mid-term, thus explaining the weakening confidence in the sector. Moreover, stocks levels were up in August, adding further to the slump in the industrial sentiment. Similarly, unfavourable evaluation of current and future demand were behind the extended decline in the confidence index in the services sector, which slid by 2.3pts m/m. Consumer confidence was also down by 1.3pts m/m, as rising inflation and slowing down of economic growth impacted negatively on households’ expectations in all observed categories.







This is a profound ethical issue. These are very sophisticated operations where the counterparty was not a hedge fund – it was not even a financial institution. Should a grocery chain be selling volatility protection?

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