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Skip Navigation LinksHome :: Markets/asset classes :: Central and Eastern Europe :: Moody’s projects GDP growth at 4% next year.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Moody’s projects GDP growth at 4% next year.





Moody’s projects GDP growth at 4% next year. GDP growth will moderate in the second half of this year and will slow down to 4% next year, according to Moody’s analyst Kenneth Orchard quoted by Wall-Street online. GDP accelerated to 8.8% y/y in H1 from 6.2% in full-2007 and the general consensus predicts a strong base effect from agriculture in H2. Nonetheless, Moody’s rules out massive correction in the growth rate, explaining that the growth and the general dynamics of credit, external deficit, fiscal gap, have been rather moderated in Romania compared to the Baltic States where such abrupt corrections occurred. Separately, Moody’s projects a CA deficit of 14% of GDP or slightly lower this year, close to the gap last year, but adds that it might diminish significantly to 10% of GDP in 2009 consistent with weaker domestic demand. Moody’s said in an earlier comment that it considers negative action on the sovereign rating only in case of sustained loose fiscal policies and inappropriate reaction of the government.







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