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Skip Navigation LinksHome :: Markets/asset classes :: Central and Eastern Europe :: Economic researcher GKI leaves GDP forecast at 3% y/y for 2008.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Economic researcher GKI leaves GDP forecast at 3% y/y for 2008.





Economic researcher GKI leaves GDP forecast at 3% y/y for 2008. GDP growth for 2008 will pick up to 3% y/y, according to the latest forecast of the economic research institute GKI. Its projection thus remained unchanged from the previous issue even though the researcher acknowledged the deteriorating external environment. Falling business confidence and expected slowdown of economic activity in the EU and especially in Germany are seen to limit the growth outlook for Hungary . These developments were already reflected in the performance of the industry as its output shrank on an annual basis in June after exports stagnated. GKI also left its inflation projection unchanged, forecasting end-year inflation of 5.5% y/y in 2008 and an average inflation of 6.5% y/y for the year. It explained that the disinflationary outlook was based on the improving harvest, which should bring agricultural prices down, as well as on a stabilisation of oil prices on the external markets together with the appreciation of the forint exchange rate. Recent strengthening of the forint was attributed to the interest rate hikes by the central bank earlier this year as well as on the high yields on government securities, issued on the domestic market. Further dynamics of the exchange rate were seen to depend heavily on the success of the minority MSZP government to push the draft 2009 state budget through the parliament and thus maintain some degree of political stability. In such conditions, GKI expected that the central bank rate-cutting cycle might start by the middle of the autumn season.







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