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The truth about Asian investment banking

June 2008

Performance: Blow-ups can be predicted

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. But according to analysis by Riskdata, investors would have been able to predict funds that would lose money back in June last year had they used the right models.


"It sounds counter intuitive but there are good risk takers and bad risk takers"
Olivier Le Marois, Riskdata

The study looked at the performance from July 2007 to March 2008 of 3,200 hedge funds and funds of hedge funds that had a track record since December 2004.

Investors typically select a fund based on previous returns. This means avoiding funds that have had abnormal return distributions and large drawdowns. Although this method eliminates extreme risk takers from a portfolio, it fails to detect "time bombs with hidden risk" says Riskdata’s chief executive, Olivier Le Marois. Indeed, selecting funds based on this method would have resulted in returns of just 0.4% for the July to March period....


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