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Skip Navigation LinksHome :: Markets/asset classes :: Banking :: Central bankers expect inflation peaking in August, another rate hike in June.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Central bankers expect inflation peaking in August, another rate hike in June.





Central bankers expect inflation peaking in August, another rate hike in June. Consumer inflation will likely peak in August, at 4.8-4.9% only to start easing in the rest of this year and throughout 2009, member of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) Marian Noga said. He hailed the finance ministry’s forecast of inflation staying on March’s level of 4.1% y/y in April , published earlier in the day, as good news. He also upheld his view, expressed after the Apr 29-30 RPP sitting, that another interest rate increase - the eight one in the current cycle - should be expected in June (with the key market intervention rate thus reaching 6.0%). Because of the expected moderation of inflation, he deemed that after June, a longer period of stable interest rates could be expected. Noga also noted that so far, the RPP’s decisions did not translate into slowdown of the economy. He saw the government’s 2008 GDP growth forecast of 5.5% (6.6% in 2007) as not endangered. Earlier in the day, fellow RPP member - also seen as a "hawk" - Dariusz Filar said that another rate hike was most likely in June and could be expected as sufficient to tame price growth. Last week, the RPP kept interest rates flat, but hinted that further monetary policy tightening should be expected following more data about the economic performance in Q1. However, another RPP member Jan Czekaj - seen as "swing voter" - deems that the Council might be forced to raise the rates this month so as to weaken inflation, even facing the prospects of further deterioration of exporters’ situation due to the strong zloty. At the same time, one of the RPP’s "doves" Stanislaw Nieckarz said that yet another interest rate hike would be "a bridge too far" in the current situation.


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