Traders say that in some cases perceptions are seemingly changing on almost a daily basis, as central bankers struggle to balance the need to cut rates to stimulate growth with the need to increase them to combat inflationary pressures.
For instance, the consensus view that UK rates would fall further to counteract the risk of a damaging fall in the housing market was challenged with the release of minutes from the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee’s meeting on April 23. The minutes showed that although the MPC had then decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5%, the nine-strong committee was split three ways: two members, Tim Besley and Andrew Sentance, voted to keep the BoE’s key repo rate on hold, while one member, David Blanchflower, voted for a larger, 50bp cut....
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