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Skip Navigation LinksHome :: Foreign exchange :: Markets expect 25bps rate hike by central bank.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Markets expect 25bps rate hike by central bank.





Markets expect 25bps rate hike by central bank. Markets on average expected the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to raise the interest rates by 25bps at the April 28 meeting of the rate-setting Monetary Council (MC) after the March 50bps hike, according to a Reuters poll. It showed that fourteen analysts projected a 25bps rate hike, two analysts – a more aggressive 50bps hike while nine counted on rates being kept unchanged. Further tightening of the monetary policy was considered likely due to the need for stronger measures to contain inflationary expectations and to ensure that inflation dynamics become consistent with the bank’s mid-term inflation target of 3% y/y for 2009. Evidence to this end was to be found in the minutes from the last meeting, which showed that the MC was determined to take additional measures to meet the inflation target. As we reported earlier, unofficial statements also suggested that the NBH was considering another rate hike to offset secondary effects from rising energy prices and the upside surprise on the part of wage growth. We still expect that the NBH could suspend the tightening cycle for the time being as high wage growth seemed to be driven by one-off items and moreover, risk premiums corrected downwards and the forint strengthened. Nevertheless, more rate hikes in the short term do appear likely on account of indications for firming inflationary expectations and the impact from the continued financial crisis on premiums and the exchange rate.


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