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China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

Up to 40% of China’s $1.7 trillion LGFV loans are at high risk of default. What’s a panicking Beijing to do?

May 2007

The case for exotic assets: Sub-Saharan Africa, Cuba and Bosnia


Can you afford to invest in Cuba’s London Club NPLs and maybe wait 20 years for a restructuring? Perhaps not, but there are other potential winning bets on the wilder shores of the emerging markets.


With spreads on sovereign emerging market debt over US treasuries compressed at their lowest levels in history and returns on developing nations’ stocks likely to be at their smallest in four years, investors will have to focus on other areas in emerging markets in order to make sizeable returns. Funds with a strong stomach and a sense of adventure should maybe turn their attention to more esoteric markets such as sub-Saharan Africa, Cuba and Bosnia.

Although many of these markets will be off-limits to most traditional long-only fund managers, they could provide rich rewards to hedge funds and other investors that have the capacity to take on big risks. Take sub-Saharan Africa-ex South...


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