Revenues globally are expected to grow by 20% to 22% this year to reach $92.4 billion, up from $76.4 billion in 2006.
The boom is being driven by the strong performance of stock markets globally and the continued strength of leveraged buyout activity. The S&P 500 rose 13.6% in 2006, the Nikkei by 2.9% and the FTSE100 by 16.3%.
Global equity trading revenues, which suffered terribly during the bear market years that followed the dotcom bust in 2001, grew 40% in 2006 to reach a total of $767 billion.
Equity trading revenues, boosted by equity derivatives activities, which are expected to grow by 15%, are expected to grow by a further 26% in 2007, outpacing the growth in equity trading volumes globally, which are projected to grow at a comparatively modest 17%.
Proprietary trading revenues are expected to add $10.5 billion to equity revenues in 2007, up 15% from 2006.
|
Global investment banking pre-tax profits |
 |
|
Source: Boston Consulting Group |
The potential to earn higher returns from investments than advisory work has made proprietary trading more attractive to investment banks. However, growth will be limited unless banks increase their risk profile and are prepared to increase capital commitment. The value at risk at major investment banks is estimated to have grown to as much as $500 million but investment banks have also become more efficient traders, realizing superior returns with improved risk efficiency.
The prime brokerage business is predicted to contribute $13.8 billion in 2007, up from $11.4 billion in 2006, as hedge funds continue to increase in importance.
Surprisingly, revenues from the global cash equities business are expected to grow just as fast. According to the report, cash equities revenues are projected to reach $40.1 billion in 2007, despite commission compression, increased commoditization and the increasing popularity of lower-margin direct market access services.
Equity capital markets revenues are also expected to maintain the strong growth momentum that they have shown over the past few years, although it will be highly dependent on the strength of stock markets. A strong pipeline of transactions, however, could result in revenues at leading investment banks growing by 10% to 15% to reach $22.2 billion.