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Why crowdfunding threatens traditional bank lending

The truth about Asian investment banking

February 2007

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  • Thanks Lee. Fun column. I especially liked your wife's universal volatility theory and hope for updates on that. I'd guess there will be some who posit that it's generally true, although at the theoretical extreme all asset markets tend toward zero with massive volatility

    16 Feb 2007 13:57

  • Lee
    The banks took the poll much more seriously this year than ever before. Many sent swat teams out to make sure clients voted. In fact one sent the number 2 person in FX out to make sure we did. We have never met this guy in all the time we've dealt with his firm!


    16 Feb 2007 17:06

  • Hello Mr. Oliver,

    In a recent article dated February 2007, you proclaimed that global warming is overstated. While I realize you are no expert on the subject, please consider the idea that you are reaching the public and could possibly influence others. This is a serious topic with serious ramifications. While global warming and its effects may not have a huge impact on your current life, subsequent generations face a global uncertainty that is likely to make global warming and climate change the most important issue of their lives.



    Please do keep us posted on FXMarketspace. It is easily one of the most interesting, if not the most exciting new exchanges.



    Thanx,

    Steven



    19 Feb 2007 09:58

  • Many thanks for the feedback. I didn't actually 'proclaim' global warming was over-stated, I said I thought it had possbily been exaggerated. I'm not sure how great my influence is - pretty insignificant I'd have thought,

    Lee


    19 Feb 2007 10:02

    Author: Lee Oliver


Can’t believe you wanna leave

It’s been a mixed week for the new kids on the block, FXMarketSpace – the 50/50 joint venture between Reuters and the CME. “The first centrally cleared, global foreign exchange platform for the over-the-counter market,” as it likes to proclaim itself, announced on Tuesday that it has received its authorisation from the UK’s Financial Services Authority as an alternative trading system.


It also trumpeted that it had successfully completed its testing programme for customers, which included a bout of live trading.

So, all appears to be well at the nascent platform as it readies itself for its expected imminent launch. However, the day before it posted the good news, FXMS’s chief operating officer Bryan Hunter suddenly left the firm. The reasons why are as yet unknown, but sources at the company say his departure came as a major surprise.

Hunter was one of FXMarketSpace’s management triumvirate, along with Rick Sears and Mark Robson. Like Sears, Hunter came over to the company from the CME, where he had been a director of its FX business. Prior to the CME, Hunter had worked in the cash market for several major institutions. One well-placed source described the Hunter and Sears combination as being like Jagger and Richards, which makes his sudden exit even more surprising.

So far I haven’t heard anything officially from FXMS about why he left. I managed to get in touch with Sears in Miami on Thursday, where he had flown for the day to attend a board meeting even though he was interrupting a family holiday in Austria. “He’s no longer with the firm and we wish him well in his future pursuits,” was Sears’ only comment. No doubt more will come out in due course.

Tell me what’s funny

A few years ago when I was working for the now defunct BridgeNews, better remembered as Knight Ridder to those in the FX market, one of my colleagues in the US insisted that a story he’d written be filed with the dateline “Airforce One” on it. Journalists are a funny bunch. By that I mean funny peculiar, rather than funny ha-ha.

The level of intellect in most news rooms is extremely high – perhaps higher than that found on even the largest trading floors, even if the latter are increasingly filled up with pointy-heads.

And yet journalism is a relatively poorly remunerated “profession”. It’s my and my far more successful wife’s former careers in the FX market that fund our lifestyle today, not my salary as a scribe. Money can’t be the motivator for most journalists. Many, and most of my Euromoney colleagues fall into this category, genuinely love writing; others, such as the former US colleague I mentioned above, are driven by ego.

Anyway, this week’s column comes to you from France where I’m meant to be skiing with my family. Where we go is a quaint village that has a bit of a resort tacked on to the back of it. It’s nothing like Verbier or any of the other popular resorts. If the market’s been strange this week, I reckon it will be because half the London FX community is in Verbier taking advantage of the UK school half-term holidays.

My European readers will be aware that this year’s ski season has been pretty disastrous. Much has been made of the impact of global warming, which I’m sure exists but which I can’t help but feel is being just a little bit overstated.

My wife, who used to trade FX options, once theorized that there is only so much volatility in the world. Her view was if one asset was having a bit of an old wang, dang, doodle, then another would be doing nothing. We gave my wife the nickname Annie Dotal, because her views based on anecdotal evidence were invariably right. So if any of my pointy-head readers have any proof that Annie’s theory is correct, could they please give me a shout.

Slippin’ and slidin’

Sticking with theories about finite amounts of something, I wonder if there is a fixed amount of precipitation in the world. It is unusual but not unknown for there to be no snow in my little village in France. A local told me that back in 1963 it did not snow at all; in the UK, in contrast, that was one of the severest winters on record.

This year, the snow out west in North America has apparently been superb, but it’s been dire, so I hear, on the East Coast. When the votes come in for the Euromoney FX Poll, I’m going to try to analyse if this has had an impact. For instance, UBS has taken clients for years to a Swiss resort called Scoul at the end of each January. The lack of snow there this year prompted me to ask what they did when they got there. Were they locked in a room and forced to vote in the poll? Did they get slaughtered, as we would have done in my day? More likely they all had a BlackBerry fest and tried to sound important. The most doubtful likelihood is that they sat around “discussing the markets and enjoying the beauty and hospitality Scoul has to offer,” as one UBS contact suggested, with her tongue firmly in her cheek no doubt.

In contrast, the 30 or so clients Deutsche took to Beaver Creek in the US had, so I hear, plenty of snow to amuse themselves in. My man says that the poll was mentioned only once and no pressure was put on them to cast their votes for the Teutonic powerhouse. Glad to hear that everything remained above board. I’d expect nothing less.

He got what he wanted

A couple of weeks ago I was asked by Euromoney stable mate Global Investor to moderate a couple of panels at its FX Masterclass in London. The negotiations went along these lines.

“Which panels will you moderate?”

“Anything but the one on rates and monetary policy. I know next to nothing about macroeconomics.”

So guess what? My day started with an attempt to steer a discussion between three excellent economists. One of them, Marc Chandler from Brown Brothers Harriman, did his best to help me it by destroying the stage backdrop before the start. Actually, I do have to say they were all very gentle to me and I also have to thank all the banks who send me macro research on a regular basis. I swotted up on the train to London and I think I just about got away with it.

The rest of the day was good fun. Some strident views were expressed on Kazakhstan in the panel on emerging markets – I do believe that an expletive beginning with ‘f’ was uttered by one delegate who views the country as an “effing basket case.” Others disagreed.

The last panel was on best execution. There was a consensus, as I reported last year, that execution in FX is generally excellent but that the dealing on a fixing rate is stupid, especially for big amounts. Apparently, it’s consultants who have advised the buy side to deal on fixes, giving them the opportunity to abrogate their responsibility to achieve best execution and hide behind a benchmark.

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