The money network:

The money network:

Why crowdfunding threatens traditional bank lending

The truth about Asian investment banking

February 2007

Email a Friend

  • All fields are compulsory


To include more than one recipient, please separate each email address with a semi-colon ';'





Add Your Comment


  • All fields are compulsory
  • All comments are subject to editorial review as we are subject to the same regulations adhered to in publishing our own content. For this reason, your comment may not be live immediately, or may not be published.






I have read and agree to the Terms and Conditions




  • Thanks for the great article. I am working on some extended reflections since almost every line contains a claim either agree with strongly or disagree with strongly. Aaron Brown's magisterial, The Poker Face of Wall Street contains the most extended and accessible analysis of the relationship between the mathematics of random processes and game theories. Aaron Brown holds an advanced Math degree from Harvard and is head of Morgan Stanley's Quantitative Finance Dept. - he is also a Championship Poker player. Game Theory in his context includes everything from simple zero-sum games modeled a la Von Neuman to the complexities of modeling Poker. Comparing negative expectations gaming in the Casino ( card-counting, dice-setting excepted ) to Retail trading with a Bank or retail Broker-Dealer can create confusion. It is not that the Broker Dealer doesn't fail to offer a level playing field by being counter-party to the retail trade ( because they can so fail to offer a level playing field in that way and many others) , it is that Casino games are highly regulated by the Gaming Control Commission by having rules which cause money-management systems to fail against the negative expectancy built into the game. To paraphrase Nassim Taleb, ' casino games did not offer enough of a random outcome because I knew I would lose.' Admittedly on-line gaming is the fortress of the really foolish but their transmogrification into retail Forex firms will only guarantee that the stupid will lose faster. More importantly, a full meta-economic theory of risk-taking is either implicit in or necessitated by any comparison between trading ( regulated or not ) , recreational gambling ( all Roulette games et.al) , and gambling-to-win ( Poker and BJ counting ). On another level, talk about a culture or nation's risk appetite fails to discriminate between too many sociological and economic variables which are cross-national and cross-cultural. Lastly, the nature of the Retail Forex firm's regulation, however murky, doesn't lead to disasters which surpass any other scam in the US enticing the gullible, greedy, and lazy. My own experiences with retail firms deserve an extended later treatment.

    Mr. Oliver's delightful mini-theory of metaphor is real fun and very European. Let us all rejoice that the Nietzsche Will to Power is the Figurative urge. The will to know by metaphor.


    12 Feb 2007 08:42

  • Simple words in simple place? I'm glad that it's triggered some debate. Opinions make markets. Thanks for your comments.

    12 Feb 2007 08:51

    Author: Lee Oliver


Doggin' Around

The advent of the retail client in FX is something now pretty much taken for granted. In next month’s magazine, we’re going to try and shed some light on the real situation in an increasingly important part of the market.


I told my esteemed editor this week that as a result of the delving around we’d been doing, we’d come up with load of buzz, most of which I’m convinced is true and which I will try and detail below. “Don’t tell me that you are going to write about which bank is looking to get a bigger footprint in the retail space,” he snorted. His implication was clear: a retail space is where you go shopping for groceries and if you want a large footprint, you need to wear big boots. In other words, don’t use trite metaphors – and remember this column is not about Tesco’s, Wal-Mart or any other big store. It’s about FX.

But I’m a firm believer in simple words in simple places, and sometimes there’s nothing like a metaphor to bring a story to life. My job is to write in a manner my audience understands. Fancy Dan prose is all well and good and has its place – but not in this column. My audience is a broad church: one extreme is 16-year old school leavers with a handful of basic qualifications, the other rocket scientists with PhDs in astrophysics. However, not too many have Eng Lit degrees. Know wha’ I mean?

Anyway, I accept the banning of terms such as ‘retail space’ and ‘footprint’. Instead, I shall report on who is trying to penetrate the retail sector and how they are going through the backdoor to get their gratification.

I’ve been told that backdoor penetration can sometimes be painful and messy, so a word of warning before you read on:

Whispers getting louder

There are increasingly loud rumours that a couple of Euromoney’s top 10 banks are poised to unveil white-label solutions to target retail clients. One story in particular just won’t go away. I’ve asked both the bank and the white-label provider if the buzz is true – the bank won’t say and the white labeller has requested that I keep quiet for the moment.

“There are rumours about us with quite a few big institutions. I can tell you that nothing is signed and it would be unhelpful if any rumours got out now because negotiations are always ongoing and can sometimes influence decision-makers. Once anything gets signed and we can go public I will definitely let you know,” said a senior figure at the retail platform I won’t yet name.

It’s never been my intention to mess things up for the participants in this great market, just remove the dark mists that sometimes shroud it in mystery.

The who who song

Others, cleverer than me, have argued that because FX is largely an unregulated market, it is really a casino. I hear that some of those online casinos that have faced a well-publicised clamp down in the land of great contradictions known as the United States of America are considering breaking into FX. The buzz is that having signed up millions of clients, they are scratching their heads and wondering what product they can legally deliver to them to satisfy their punting instincts. I hear several have been looking at white-labelled FX trading solutions as the answer.

Interestingly, a couple of the platform providers I spoke to have pointed out that any online FX offering in the US would have to be regulated by the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission. Also, I understand platform providers are fearful about the reputational risk they would face by providing a white-label solution to an online casino. Funny old game, isn’t it?

I don’t want to lose you

Deutsche Bank is one FX behemoth that is definitely keen to grab a slice of the retail pie. Last May, it trumpeted the launch of its dbFX platform, which I later revealed as simply a white-labelling of FXCM.

I had an interesting chat a while back with Zar Amrolia, global head of foreign exchange at Deutsche, about why the bank decided to go with FXCM, which has – how shall I put it? – a mixed reputation in the market. For those that didn’t read it first time, take a look at the Weekly FiX posted on October 20. One of the things I specifically asked Zar was how worried he was about Deutsche’s brand being tarnished by the association with FXCM. Well, the whingeing and whining hasn’t stopped from the punters and the hot gossip is that Deutsche is about to boot out FXCM.

“Deutsche Bank does not comment on individual client, vendor or partnership relationships. Suffice to say that our fledgling online margin FX business is doing very well, with excellent growth in volume, deposits and clients. In addition, our strategy remains unchanged and we do intend to expand on our retail platform,” was Zar’s response. No word as of yet from FXCM.

Brand new thing

Reputational risk is something that is undoubtedly hard to quantify. But make no mistake, once a reputation gets tarnished, it’s hard to buff it back to a glistening shine again. Last week, I got an email from my muckers at Tradex Capital Markets, an established and reputable company based in Greenwich, Connecticut. It had the words urgent notice in the subject line and warned “friends and investors” to: “Please be advised that there is absolutely no relationship, direct or indirect, between the expelled entity “Tradex Group” and our company, Tradex Capital Markets” (their italics).

The company has found itself inadvertently caught up in the woes of the similarly named Tradex Group, which will be barred permanently from carrying out activities in the US by the National Futures Association (NFA) from February 15. The action was taken because Tradex Group had been, according to the NFA: “allegedly soliciting retail investors to trade off-exchange foreign currency futures and options with its parent company, Tradex Handel & Beratungs.”

  Page 1 of 2  Next | Single Page








Download the Free Euromoney iPad app today