The key figure in China's financial reform process is Zhu Rongji, vice-premier in charge of the economy and a 68-year-old often described in western media as China's economic tsar. Though keeping a somewhat lower profile over the past year, his role as overseer of the financial reforms thus far implemented has been crucial.
Without Zhu Rongji's forceful personality, it probably would have been impossible to push through the legislation which in 1995 set China's state-owned banks free to become commercial entities and which established an autonomous central bank.
Zhu was also the critical figure in China's austerity programme, launched in 1993 to bring inflation under control and highly unpopular among China's state-owned enterprises, which bore the brunt of the credit squeeze. As inflation now is about 6%, compared with 21% in December 1994, the programme appears to have succeeded.
As such achievements suggest, Zhu Rongji is one Chinese leader who gets things done, whatever the obstacles. According to a Chinese banker: "He has no tolerance for bureaucratic nonsense. He is regarded as someone who has the courage to make decisions and take responsibility a very rare quality among China's leadership."
In a society which thrives on building consensus and avoiding confrontation, such a forceful approach allied to a quick temper have not made Zhu popular. But if he has made enemies (especially among the state-owned enterprise lobby), they have not wielded sufficient power to drive him from government testimony, perhaps, to the consensus among China's leadership on the need to push on with reform.
This is not to say that Zhu Rongji is unequivocally a reformer. His concerns appear to lie with the maintenance of stability. As applied to inflation, this has been welcomed by western advisers. However, in other areas, such as development of the stock exchanges and futures markets, the impact of wanting to maintain stability may have slowed progress. Such markets are by nature volatile, something the Chinese leadership has been slow to accept.
Nevertheless, Zhu Rongji is considered open-minded and sharp. According to one Chinese banker: "If you have a good idea, he is accessible. If you show up without knowing your numbers, you won't get a second chance."
These qualities are perhaps best demonstrated by the calibre of officials who advise him and who have been put in key positions in those ministries and departments dealing with financial reform. While it would perhaps be an exaggeration to talk of a clique, these men have close connections with Zhu, and some undoubtedly are rising stars in Chinese finance.
Zhu's associates
Zhu Rongji's choice as his successor as governor of the People's Bank of China was Dai Xianglong. There were concerns when Dai was appointed that he lacked the seniority to push ahead with establishing pbc's independence. He comes from a solid banking background and is a former chairman of the Bank of Communications, the Shanghai-based state-owned commercial bank. Dai's close connection with Zhu Rongji probably has made such worries unfounded. Certainly, at Dai's behest, pbc has become one of the most open and accessible of the ministries and departments charged with financial reform. Foreign bankers regard him as "a very sturdy central banker" and, as one expressed it, "China's equivalent of a monetarist someone who understands what needs to be done to establish the central bank as the custodian of the currency."
In terms of international contacts, deputy governor Chen Yuan, son of veteran politician Chen Yun, a rival to leader Deng Xiaoping, is the most prominent at the pbc. Passed over for the governorship because of his lack of experience of domestic banking, he has had some success in raising the international profile of the central bank, co-operating with other central banks and monetary bodies such as the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund. In international banking terms, he is described as "very sophisticated". He is well-acquainted, for example, with the minutiae of international settlement.
Recently appointed as vice-governor is Zhou Xiaochuan, director-general of the State Administration for Foreign Exchange, China's foreign-exchange watchdog. Along with Li Jian Ge, vice-chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which oversees the securities markets, Zhou Xiaochuan is very closely associated with Zhu, to whom he has served as adviser, though not within any formal structure.
Li Jiange is attending the Communist Party School at the government complex Zhongnanhai, suggesting he may soon be promoted. He has been tipped in the media as likely to succeed Zhou Daojiong as chairman of the csrc and is said to be something of a political operator. One banker predicts he is "probably someone we will hear a lot about in future".
Zhou Xiaochuan is more of an academic economist. Formerly executive vice president at the Bank of China, he has been selected to lead China's foreign-exchange watchdog as the Chinese currency moves towards convertibility. According to one western adviser: "When you want to make your currency convertible, you bring in reformers to head your foreign-exchange-control body." Symbolically, at the end of last year, the agency changed the English translation of its name from the State Administration for Exchange Control to the State Administration for Foreign Exchange.
A less widely talked-about personality is minister of finance Liu Zhongli. Reforms in the auctioning and trading of state bonds in the past two years suggest much is going on behind the scenes, though publicly Liu has tended to avoid making waves.
Good credentials
Well-known within Chinese finance but at a more junior level within the ministry is Gao Jian, director-general of the state-debt-management department. A Chinese banker describes him as "one of the best and brightest in China's financial world." A phd in finance and author of several books on the bond markets, he has played a vital role in the reform of the domestic bond market. According to one foreign investment banker: "What he has accomplished in the last 12 months in terms of expanding the market and educating other officials is heroic." His aides suggest that in recognition of this he is likely to be promoted within the ministry.