Is it a correction rather than a crisis? Perhaps, but consider this sobering list of 31 crises, prepared by Tim Bond, a strategist at Barclays Capital. His conclusion? "A western equity market crash will complete this litany of disasters ... since [equities] are mispriced by most yardsticks and since their fundamentals are daily worsening."
- A pan-Asian domestic banking crisis
- A pan-Asian economic slump
- A yen crisis
- A renminbi/HK dollar crisis
- An international bank lending crisis centred on Asia
- An ongoing collapse in all Asian equity markets
- A Japanese bank equity crash
- A collapse in Antipodean currency values
- A Canadian dollar collapse
- A complete (bar 15 to 20 cents on the dollar) Russian default
- A total collapse in the rouble
- A political crisis in Russia
- A sharp sell-off in east European bonds and currencies
- A sharp sell-off in Greek bonds and currency
- An explosion in swap/government spreads
- An explosion in corporate/government spreads
- A delivery squeeze in the Bund
- A Scandinavian currency crisis
- A sharp rise in Scandinavian yields and rates
- A South African currency and bond collapse
- A Latin American bond collapse
- A probable Latin American recession
- A Latin currency crisis
- A crash in commodity prices
- A crash in basic-goods prices
- An unprecedented rise in all developed-nation financing costs
- A collateral/repo market crisis
- A potential financial industry crisis driven by all of the above
- A possible resignation of the US president
- A probable/possible removal of Kohl in Germany
- A completely inevitable removal of the present Japanese government...
And for good measure, we thought of a few more ourselves:
- A crisis in IMF funding
- A sharp sell-off in Turkish securities and currency
- A default crisis in Central Asia
- A Russia-style rollover crisis with Brazil's short-term debt
- A default of Ukraine's T-bills
