China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

Up to 40% of China’s $1.7 trillion LGFV loans are at high risk of default. What’s a panicking Beijing to do?

EuromoneyFXNews.com

EuromoneyFXNews.com

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November 2006

IPO of China’s largest commercial bank looks set to be a success


ICBC listing might set a new record but investors should tread with caution.


Bingeing on China’s banking IPOs

The IPO of China’s largest commercial bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), looks set to be a runaway success if demand for the simultaneous offering in Hong Kong and Shanghai is a reliable gauge.

The issue is being deluged with cash from every conceivable direction: local Hong Kong tycoons, strategic investors from Asia and the Middle East, domestic and international institutions and, of course, Hong Kong’s redoubtable retail investors, who have been clamouring for application forms and financing loans to stag the issue. As application lists closed, the offer had already generated demand exceeding $500 billion for the estimated $22 billion offering.

The sums are staggering and it might be tempting to get carried along with the collective euphoria. But a little circumspection...


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