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China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

Up to 40% of China’s $1.7 trillion LGFV loans are at high risk of default. What’s a panicking Beijing to do?

September 2006

China’s road to the outside world


A new product, and a new law, could herald the beginning of institutional investment in global markets.


When the People’s Bank of China announced a framework for its qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII) programme in April, setting a roadmap for the investment of Chinese funds overseas, the initial reaction was one of heavily tempered enthusiasm.

Great, said analysts, but let’s be realistic: this process is going to be heavy on procedures, restrictive, and costly. Nothing’s going to change straightaway – not the investment habits of ordinary Chinese, not the outward views of Chinese banks and asset managers, and certainly not China’s external balance of payments.

For the past few months, that glass-is-half-empty...


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