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March 1996

Herbie: The favorite son


This is the big one, it rocks the country, it rocks the Beltway, it rocks the bond market and it sure as fate rocks all those lardass VPs in head office, so on no account let word of it leak out on those canasta afternoons of yours, consider it classified Shred Before Reading.




The trail leads to 21st and Constitution, stately abode of the US Federal Reserve and of its feline chairman Alan Greenspan, but for me it begins with a call from Representative Catwiesl, he wishes to know how I rate the Draft Felix Rohatyn bandwagon, I tell him it passes me by but I figure the sage of Lazard Frères is pushing it.

Catwiesl explains how as the President prepares to run again he feels the urgent need for friendly faces in the Fed, he needs some guys there who believe in growth and prosperity and handing out the money to the voters, at least until the second Tuesday in November, and he does not wish to be tripped up in the home straight by some pedant who takes his remit literally and gives rates a hoick just to be safe, campaigns are lost for less.

He arranges to install some professor named Blinder who sees the big picture, but somehow this prof gets seen off, and scoots back to Princeton for fear that his tenure runs out, so now the idea is to send for Felix and to boost him as the guy who saves New York when it is bust, or buster than usual.

This does not fly either, says Catwiesl, when Newt's first termers hear the boost for Felix it brings them out against him in a posse, they figure when Ford tells the city to drop dead he is a Gingrich born out of his time, just think of the taxes we save if it does what he says.

At this I figure it is high time I felt pulses in Washington, one thing a banker needs to know is what color Fed he has to work with, also if the right governor is truly hard to come by, maybe a guy with my experience should sidle forward, tho' I quit this idea over the first martini when Catwiesl tells me what the job pays.

He explains how if the White House has its druthers, it cuts thru all the rigmarole and just gives the Fed a nice new friendly chairperson, or if not friendly then at least right on, like Donna Boom Boom Shalala, but they fear this upsets the bond market and by now Greenspan teaches them the bond market is important, it can tell everybody what to do, like reappointing Chairman Greenspan.

You have to hand it to him, he puts in a neat little cut in rates, and goes on to give his testimony and explains how everything is right as rain, so bonds blaze away and takes the Dow up into the wild blue yonder, and before you can say Boom Boom the guy makes himself a sure thing, a slam dunk, and a first for the Clinton administration, it finally chooses a white Republican male who is 70 years old and straight with it.

You know, Herbie, Catwiesl says, I wish the Grand Old Party has a few more white males who makes themselves slam dunks against the odds, it can use one right now, just look at our guys in the primaries, one dorky publisher, one nutty publicist, one southern governor like a Republican Clinton, and one veteran on his last hurrah or maybe the hurrah after that, I tell you, Herbie, I would not back any of them for a nickel to beat a fat man from here to the bar down the street.

Mom, this is when the bulb over your boy's head lights up in red, white and blue, I call up the next martinis and tell Catwiesl to chew on his and keep his mouth shut while he hears about the game plan that will change everything.

OK, I say, it is summer and convention time, the bond market tops out but never fear, Greenspan is here, maybe he puts in another little cut or two, just to keep the economy from getting stupid, and the polls say so too, they give Clinton licking every candidate in sight, and a mission is sent out to ask Colin Powell one more time, and he says not this time.

What happens then, listen to it, first a whisper, then a murmur spreading from the smoke-filled rooms to set the floor alight, and cheer after cheer as you stride to the platform to launch the party's secret weapon, you tell them: I nominate a great Republican a great American and a surefire proven winner, the bond market's favorite son, Alan Greenspan!

So the hall erupts and our man is the candidate by acclamation. All that remains is to go find him and tell him, and to rustle up someone to run with him, Mom, I can see this goes down with Catwiesl like a third martini, he is the boy who always wants to be VP and now he can write his own ticket.

It sure is a ticket to ride, and the polls say so too, for a new-minted credible candidate they swing right round, but also from now on policy begins to tighten, just one or two neat little rate hikes here and there, or maybe three, some guy in the Fed who takes his remit literally, but the economy starts to look stupid, and nothing does so much to make a president look stupid, as the previous president finds out.

By the time November comes our guy is a slam dunk for the White House, and up he loops down into the basket, he carries every state except maybe Arkansas, so then he puts in a neat little rate cut to celebrate, and packs his bag and strolls down Constitution on the way to his new office, and creates another vacancy.

Catwiesl agrees I have first claim on this, unless I happen to prefer an embassy, but I kinda fancy myself in the chair, so long as we can fix the compensation, maybe the Fed takes over the note issue from the Treasury and keeps a few for me, we tell Newt this is privatization.
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