Tomorrow, we get serious
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Tomorrow, we get serious

Turkey's banks are among the most profitable in the world. Why? Because the government rewards them royally for getting Turkish citizens to pay for its debt. But this game is coming to an end. And the banks know they must sharpen up and do some real banking. David Shirreff reports

Barnstorming bureaucrats


A senior Turkish banker, at breakfast in the courtyard of Istanbul's most famous prison - now the Four Seasons Hotel - considers the banking sector's addiction to the government securities market. "It's like a Prozac pill," he says, attacking a brioche in the brilliant October sunshine.

Even after depreciation against the dollar, three-month Turkish treasury bills can yield a 30% annual return. This has been going on since 1985, with a brief blip in 1994 when the lira fell 85.8% in 10 weeks including a 38% dip over two days. Even then those holders of T-bills who didn't panic made money.

Why bother with corporate lending and consumer banking when even a small bank can borrow dollars, buy treasury bills, repo them out to customers, and rake in a healthy return? Especially since the government insures all bank deposits 100% - something it was forced to do after the 1994 crisis. "The banking system has lost some of its talent to do real banking," says the banker, brushing away a marauding wasp.

The 1994 blip at least showed responsible banks that the T-bill game cannot last for ever.


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