From the number of foreign banks opening branches in Bucharest one could be forgiven for thinking that the Romanian market must finally be about to take-off. Don't be fooled. The banks may be there, but as yet the business isn't.
The attitude of bankers involved in Romania ranges from philosophical to lugubrious. "There is a sense of disappointment," says one foreign banker. "Romania was expected to be the next Poland." Mimicking Poland's 6% GDP growth remains a pipe dream for Romania. Indeed, any sort of GDP growth seems pretty far off. Predictions for 1998 see GDP declining by as much as 4.5%. At the start of the year, the finance minister Daniel Daianu was aiming for zero growth. A target that has been scuppered by industrial production which is down by around 20% on 1997.
It's a gloomy picture for those banks which, infected by the over-exuberance that followed...
