The truth about Asian investment banking
China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

Up to 40% of China’s $1.7 trillion LGFV loans are at high risk of default. What’s a panicking Beijing to do?

September 1999

Debt indices: "Bonds have to be alive"



Emerging market bond investors have up to now been extraordinarily ill-served by the index compilers. Only JP Morgan has made a concerted effort to provide a benchmark index to track emerging market debt, and its Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) and EMBI+ have as a result become the market standards.

But the shortcoming of both indices has been their reliance on Latin American debt. Because the indices were weighted according to market capitalization of bonds, and involved quite stringent liquidity tests, they ended up being virtual proxies for Latin American sovereign bonds.

The original EMBI was weighted around 89% towards Latin America, while the more recent EMBI+ was still 78% weighted towards the region's borrowers.


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