China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

China’s $1.7 trillion hangover

Up to 40% of China’s $1.7 trillion LGFV loans are at high risk of default. What’s a panicking Beijing to do?

Euromoney’s 2012 FX survey results

Euromoney’s 2012 FX survey results

Access the results now

June 2000

End of the road for sovereign debt consensus


The nature of sovereign debt reschedulings is changing as private sector bail-ins of diverse groups of bondholders replace the Brady-style deals that used to be negotiated between borrowers and tight groups of creditors. Lawyers have their work cut out.


Brady bonds and disintermediation have transformed the sovereign debt market and, as a result, sovereigns Wnding themselves in diYculties have had to engage in a process of dialogue with as wide an investment community as possible. Unfortunately, parallel shifts in this market mean that the opportunities for dialogue in sovereign reschedulings are being eroded and the future for these deals is hard to predict.
By the mid-1990s, it would be fair to say that the

Brady process of resolving government debt defaults had been successfully established. Brady deals, which were enthusiastically taken up by non-bank bond market investors, had become the expected restructuring package. Poland, Bulgaria, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina were all examples of countries where, to a greater or lesser extent, this technique had proved successful. These deals were put together by committees, with discussion and negotiation underpinning their entire framework (much as their predecessors, Baker deals, had been handled). CliV Godfrey, partner at CliVord Chance with some...


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