March 2002
Country risk March 2002: Economists predict a strong rebound but not until 2003
Six months ago rising oil prices, the bursting of the new economy bubble and weaker financial markets were increasing the dangers of a recession even before the blow of September 11. Although the direct effects of the attacks have been relatively small and sector-specific, the effect on business confidence is likely to be large in the short term. In our latest review of country prospects Euromoney's panel of experts has revised down average global projections for 2002-03 for 79 countries and has revised up 105. On balance, consensus growth forecasts indicate strong resurgence in 2003.
Country risk table
Economic projections table
Methodology
A cautiously optimistic outlook for European and US growth emerges from Euromoney's latest poll of economists. The imprecision of judgements on the strength of the US recovery over the next year as well as the resilience of the EU consumer in the face of a possible gradual rise in unemployment make these forecasts highly provisional.
In Europe the value of the euro has fallen by over 10% since its launch, adding to consumer price inflation and squeezing real household incomes. Average growth continues to be relatively slow in 2002 in all the major eurozone economies. Growth estimates for Germany (7) have been reduced to 1% for 2002 but move back towards the Euroland average in 2003. Germany is...
More information on country risk
You must be a Level 2 subscriber to access this content.
If you are a level 2 subscriber, please log in now to view. Enter your username (email address) and password at the top right-hand side of euromoney.com.
To upgrade to level 2, please contact the hotline: +44 (0)207 779 8999.
If you have yet to subscribe, please do so now to access this content.
Subscribe online now and save up to 30% on your subscription. You may also subscribe by phoning our hotline on +44 (0)207 779 8999.
Learn more about the benefits of a subscription to euromoney.com.
If you are a trialist or subscriber, please enter your username and password at the top right-hand side of euromoney.com
Subscribers to Euromoney benefit from:
Level 1:
- Online access to the past 12 months content
- Tailored RSS news feeds direct to your desktop
- News delivered directly to your mobile device or PC
- Personalised email newsfeed of 'Top stories' and 'Breaking news'
Level 2:
- Exclusive access to euromoney.com - Read the latest issue early online, search for specific developments by region or sector, interrogate the results of Euromoney's benchmark polls, and view the archive dating back to 2000
- 12 monthly issues of Euromoney magazine
- More than 30 specialist research guides free
- The results of Euromoney’s polls and surveys
- Tailored RSS news feeds direct to your desktop
- News delivered directly to your mobile device or PC
- Personalised email newsfeed of 'Top stories' and 'Breaking news'
Click here to subscribe