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Lula: a
job on his hands to
export his domestic popularity
to Washington
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The Brazilian presidential elections were a triumph
for democracy. The winner, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, became
the first leftist ever elected president. And in an election
notable for its transparency he won the largest ever share of
the vote.
While Brazilians danced in the streets, Wall Street
greeted Lula with cautious optimism. Analysts reckoned he
would stick to the previous administration's IMF agreement
and manage to get through 2003 without a catastrophic
default.
The reaction was different in Washington. The anti-Castro
brigade is already spitting fire about the actions of populist
former coup leader Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. They won't then be
happy about the likely election of populist former coup leader
Lucio Gutierrez in Ecuador.
Henry Hyde, chairman of the House international relations
committee, seized on the fact that Lula has visited Cuba and
Venezuela. In a letter to president Bush he echoed George W's own
rhetoric, warning: "There is a real prospect that Castro, Chávez,
and Lula da Siva could constitute an axis of evil in the Americas
which might soon have nuclear weapons."
Hyde's letter seems to have rattled some analysts more than
Lula's election did. Walter Molano, chief economist at BCP
Securities, says: "This is a much bigger risk for Brazil than its
ability to roll over its next domestic bond issue, or who will be
the next president of the central bank."
The US State Department has made it clear it doesn't share
Hyde's view of Lula. But if Brazil's new president makes any
political misjudgements, the Republican right wing seems ready to
pounce.