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The US treasury market reaches breaking point

The US treasury market reaches breaking point

The structural issue that could cause the world's market of last resort to grind to a halt

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January 2003

Empowering the market


Russia’s central bank is launching a controversial new scheme aimed at creating stability and competition. Deputy central bank chairman Andrei Kozlov explains why the reforms are needed.




ANDREI KOZLOV JOINED the Central Bank of Russia in March this year as its deputy chairman and is spearheading the drive to reform Russia's ailing banking sector. Euromoney met him last month to discuss the central bank's latest initiatives, including the controversial new deposit insurance scheme. Although this may bring stability to the banking system, the fear is that unless it is accompanied by tougher regulation it could create moral hazard: banks might be encouraged to take big risks confident that the fund will bail them out if they fail.

The World Bank and IMF have been asked by us many times in previous years for their opinion on the introduction of deposit insurance in Russia. They said that it was impossible to set up a deposit insurance scheme with big banks. They recommended that the banking system should be cleaned up first.

Until a year ago the central bank agreed, especially after the crisis when it was not clear what was happening. The system needed to be stabilized. At issue is not deposit insurance per se but a level playing field for all the banks in this market.

The question remains how to introduce deposit insurance in a weak banking system. After long consideration, it was decided that the government and central bank together would like to re-establish trust and provide some guarantees to all private depositors in the banking system.

These guarantees could be provided by two things in parallel. First, technically creating the deposit insurance scheme and fund, defining the way it is financed and the way money is spent. Secondly, enhancing and strengthening the supervisory rules for banks allowed to join the scheme.

This is the most frequently asked question and, to be frank, I don't know. Until you go into each bank and analyze its details it is impossible to say which will be able to join.

Our approach is based on the current legislation and our understanding of fit and proper behaviour - financial and other - based on international experience and recommendations of supervisory authorities such as in western Europe and the US.

In the US the deposit insurance regulator has three broad areas of work: to run the deposit insurance scheme; to be the sole corporate liquidator of the insolvent banks; and to be the supervisory authority.

In our case the first two tasks will be taken on by the Agency for Reconstruction of Credit Organizations (Arco), but it will not be a supervisory authority.

The central bank and Arco have already become members of the newly established International Association of Deposit Insurers (in Basle). There are three levels: full, associate and observer. The central bank is an associate and Arco is an observer.

According to the latest draft of the law Sberbank will become a member of the scheme on the same terms as any other bank. This will happen after it has been verified by us, after a special inspection looking into all the details that will be studied in each bank that is involved. It has to jump the same hurdles as everyone else.

The contribution is the same. The timing is the same. The only difference is not for Sberbank but for its depositors. Their money will be insured 100% until 2007, it is still under consideration - it is up to the state Duma to decide.

Its participation will not give a privilege to Sberbank but to the depositors. It is done to avoid a shock in the very beginning.

This was allowed by the central bank - it didn't happen all of a sudden. We gave them an allowance, but it was not a general allowance to act like this for ever. Both the banks - Vneshtorgbank (VTB) and Sberbank - presented a timetable to reduce this level gradually until they meet a deadline on June 1 2003. By then they should be in the common limits set for all banks.

Sberbank is not the problem in the banking system. It is the biggest and strongest bank in the country. It is a problem for its competitors and we agree with this.

I don't think that Sberbank should keep this position - thanks to the central bank or the government - for ever. We need competition and the share of Sberbank in the retail deposit market is declining by about 5% a year. At the start of this year the share of Sberbank was approximately 75% of all retail deposits and now it is about 70%. In five or six years it could be less than 50% again; in 1997 the share Sberbank had was about 50%.

We are not for revolution, we are for evolution. We have to provide incentives for Sberbank competitors to grow fast and to enlarge the volume and spectrum of services to clients, including foreign banks. We are not afraid of foreign banks in this country. Let it become a more competitive situation.

But until then, while Sberbank is the one big bank in the country, we shall not make revolution. It wouldn't be prudent.

Last month the central bank adopted new rules for cash-processing centres for commercial banks. Before, the central bank had relatively strong rules about how offices, vaults and the like should be constructed. These requirements made it quite costly for banks to set these up, irrespective of the amount of money kept in these walls.

We have dropped all these requirements and said that it is up to a commercial bank to choose the level of security and construction for its own buildings. We are moving along the road, levelling the playing field.

[Sberbank's domination of the sector does represent] a danger, but this is not the biggest problem of the banking business. The biggest is the high costs of doing business and the low profitability of banking in general. Banking is not profitable.

A new banking inspectorate is under construction. Not only this, but we have several internal programmes to improve the supervision of banks.

The first is the creation of "curators" or personal supervisory officers, who are in charge of knowing everything in each particular bank. Just now the system is not installed, only in some regional branches [of the central bank], where there are some people who are responsible for knowing what is going on in every bank.

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