March 2003
Country risk March 2003: Asian recovery belies slack global growth
Oil prices have helped cushion the effects of slack global growth for many energy exporters. Asian and European growth is accelerating but there are wide regional variations and the World Bank warns that the world economy may well slide into recession.
Full Results: Country risk | Economic projections
GDP GROWTH IN east Asia exceeded expectations in 2002, averaging about 6.1%. "There are real signs of recovery in the region since the Asian financial crisis," says Linda Yueh, lecturer in economics at the London School of Economics. "Net private lending to the affected countries is positive for the first time since 1997. Excluding China (56) from the region's calculations reduces the region's rate of growth to closer to 5% for the past year. With the sober external environment and the global economic slowdown, recovery in the region will likely continue but at a moderate rate."
By contrast, there have been seismic changes in Latin America's risk levels and perceptions. "Argentina has fallen into an expected crisis, but with a magnitude that will make any significant rebound and exit from acute difficulties much more complex and probably unstable," says Thierry Apoteker, managing director, TAC Financial. "Differentiation between countries has increased, with Mexico slowly making the gap to reach a Chilean-type of country risk. Brazil (79) looks increasingly a potential candidate for a parallel move. Country risk has decisively moved away from pure financial and debt considerations, towards more explicit political issues, such as the stability of the Chávez government in Venezuela."
More information on country risk
Access to this content is for level 2 subscribers. You do not currently have access to this content, to gain access subscribe or call our hotline on +44 (0)207 779 8999.
If you are a level 2 subscriber but have yet to sign in to the site, please log in now to view this content.
Subscribers to Euromoney benefit from:
Level 1:
- Online access to the past 12 months content
- Tailored RSS news feeds direct to your desktop
- News delivered directly to your mobile device or PC
- Personalised email newsfeed of 'Top stories' and 'Breaking news'
Level 2:
- Exclusive access to euromoney.com - Read the latest issue early online, search for specific developments by region or sector, interrogate the results of Euromoney's benchmark polls, and view the archive dating back to 2000
- 12 monthly issues of Euromoney magazine
- More than 30 specialist research guides free
- The results of Euromoneys polls and surveys
- Tailored RSS news feeds direct to your desktop
- News delivered directly to your mobile device or PC
- Personalised email newsfeed of 'Top stories' and 'Breaking news'
Click here to subscribe