The US economy is growing at over 8% a
year. Jobs are returning, industrial production is improving and
households are still spending. Everybody expects this business
cycle to be like those before and they've lapped up stocks in the
US and Europe, in anticipation.
Despite the rising chorus of optimism, I remain convinced that
the consensus will be disappointed on growth. That's because most
of the excesses of the 1990s' boom were not corrected by the mild
recession of 2001.
A recession is supposed to correct imbalances and create
conditions for another healthy economic cycle. But the last
recession was unlike most others. In 2001, investment collapsed...
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