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YOU WOULD THINK that the jobs of analysts sitting in banks' credit research departments across Europe would have been a lot easier in 2003. There were occasional blow-ups, such as the Parmalat scandal, but overall last year's market rally was astounding and investing in credit throughout the course of the year increasingly seemed like a one-way bet.
But analysts at the bank that has topped the most categories in Euromoney's 2004 credit research poll say this isn't the case. In this environment, picking the credits that will outperform is tricky, and as Rick Deutsch, head of European high-grade credit research at BNP Paribas, points out, investors can't just chase yield either, as one poor credit decision could destroy a lot of running yield. "In a tight spread environment, avoiding potential bombs is critical," he says.
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