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Bank atlas: Largest banks in EMEA

Bank atlas: Largest banks in EMEA

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April 2004

Terror attack and politics fail to dent economic strength

by Ben Sills




Madrid has returned quickly to some kind of normality following the terrorist attack last month. There is still a steady flow of mourners to the sea of candles that commemorate the victims, but elsewhere in Atocha Station commuters were streaming from the platforms within a week of the attack, just as they did before.

The market has responded in a similar fashion. Although the Ibex 35 dipped sharply following the attack and the election that came quickly after, within a week it was moving broadly in line with the other major world markets. The main reason for this is that despite the shock of the Socialist Party (PSOE) election victory and the animosity between the two main political parties, the country's political divisions are more about the war in Iraq and the style of the outgoing government than economic philosophy.

The ruling People's Party (PP) lost the election because it was widely believed that José-María Aznar and his government had lied to the Spanish people to further their own political ends when the rest of the country was convulsed with shock and grief.

The political fallout from the PP's initial insistence that ETA, the Basque separatist group, was to blame for the attacks and the dramatic electoral reversal it produced may still be substantial, but nobody is predicting any major shift in economic policy.

"Sound structural reforms and EMU membership have helped to sustain economic growth over the last eight years, making Spain the growth stalwart of Europe," wrote Vincenzo Guzzo, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, in a research paper immediately following the election. "The elections mark a change of leadership but should not alter substantially the country's economic performance, in our view."

The PSOE's election manifesto mixes old-school commitments to equality with more business-friendly Blairite talk. But the top priority of prime minister José-Luis Rodriguez Zapatero will be to maintain stability.

"Monetary policy is unaffected," says Alejandra Kindelán, chief economist at Grupo Santander. "They have a cap on government spending at 40% of GDP and that is a good thing. Budget stability has been the key to economic success, and the PSOE recognizes this."

Since the Socialist victory did come out of nowhere, some commentators have suggested that as the PSOE didn't expect to govern it isn't fully prepared and, certainly, Zapatero has an air of political naivety about him.

However, David Burns, head of Schroders, Spain, points out: "You don't become leader of the PSOE and win the party elections by being a wimp." Furthermore, there are a number of highly experienced, respected, and capable Spanish socialists around. Foremost is Pedro Solbes, currently the EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs. It has been widely reported in the Spanish press that he will be made finance minister in the new administration, although the PSOE has refused to confirm this.

"If Solbes is confirmed as minister of finance that will be great news for the PSOE," says Burns. "Then you would have the guardian of the stability pact in charge of the Spanish economy."

Zapatero will also be able to call on the expertise of Miguel Sebastian, a former banker at BBVA, who was Zapatero's chief economic adviser during the election campaign and favourite for the post of finance minister before the emergence of Solbes. It is now expected Sebastian will take up a formal role as adviser to the prime minister.

The two represent a formidable team. Sebastian will have the respect of the markets, while Solbes has a strong track record both at home and abroad. "The Aznar years have been very good," Kindelán observes, "but the basis for that stability was laid down before Aznar came to power in the last years of the previous PSOE administration when Solbes was finance minister."

One source of potential instability that Morgan Stanley's Guzzo identifies is Zapatero's need to form a coalition. The PSOE won 164 seats in the 350-seat parliament, just short of an outright majority. The People's Party took 148 seats, leaving a number of potential partners available to Zapatero ranging from the United Left to a variety of nationalist parties from Catalonia, the Basque country and the Canary Islands.

"Any agreement is set to impose on José Luis Zapatero, a moderate socialist, co-existence with autonomist regional forces and/or farther left positions, at the likely expense of political stability," writes Guzzo.

However, Kindelán argues that the PSOE's 164 seats are more than enough for it to govern comfortably. Zapatero himself has said that he plans to seek support from partners on a case-by-case basis rather than tying himself down with a fixed alliance.

The new prime minister's biggest, most immediate challenge will come on the international stage. Zapatero was a vehement opponent of the war in Iraq and has already committed himself to withdrawing Spanish troops if the UN doesn't assume control. If he can reach some kind of consensus with the allies of his predecessor without compromising his own pre-election position, then he will have gone a long way towards proving his political credentials. 






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