Since I was a junior analyst at JP Morgan at the dawn of international investing, inflation has been on the way down everywhere. Not only did disinflation mean lower inflation in every successive period, it also meant different countries' inflation rates converged.
Disinflation was achieved by tight monetary policy and fiscal discipline. All that is over. Now the world is moving towards lower annual growth of 3% and medium-level inflation of 3%. This 3x3 world is flanked by the dangers of rising inflation expectations on one side and deflation on the other. That prompts more asset price volatility as outcomes are disputed.
Ranking by rising prices
In my JP Morgan days, we spent a lot of time debating relative national inflation rates and rankings. Getting it right meant getting currencies and real returns to investors right too. Of all the asset allocation tools we used, the simplest and best was...
